Prospect Baseline Profile

Joseph Dzierwa

BAL · AA · P

Prospect Baseline Rank #43

Player Assessment

Current model read

Performance is doing more work than the scouting grade in Joseph Dzierwa's current evaluation. The 76 Performance Grade sits 21 points above the 55 scouting foundation, a large enough gap to change the shape of the evaluation.

Prospect Score & Development

65/100

Solid composite evaluation

Baseline

78/100

Central modeled outcome; separate from Prospect Score.

Confidence

92/100

High confidence

Evidence strength, separate from model risk.

Performance context

Model-derived assessment

76/100

Strong current production

K/9

Miss ability10.2 K/9Strong strikeout signal

BB/9

Command2.1 BB/9Above-average command

WHIP

Traffic prevention0.90 WHIPStrong traffic prevention

Scouting Profile

20–80 scouting scale

Overall

Fastball

Slider

Changeup

Control

Grades updated 2026-09-29

Supporting Evidence and What to Watch

Current model assessment

Supporting Evidence

Prospect Baseline places the central outcome at 78, with a modeled range from 70 to 81. There is still meaningful movement available in either direction, but the range is not unusually volatile. The supporting evidence is comparatively mature, so future movement should require a more meaningful change in performance or scouting information.

What to Watch

The key question is whether the production forces the scouting view upward rather than drifting back toward it. Repeating the same performance against stronger competition or over a larger sample would strengthen the Floor and make the breakout harder to dismiss. That confirmation matters more now than simply adding another short stretch of strong surface numbers.

Model factors and risk context

Model Risk Index0

Age to level58

Track record79

Data quality100

Risk, age-to-level, track record and data quality are separate model fields. A missing value is not zero.

Projected Outcome Range

Floor 70Baseline 78Ceiling 81

These are modeled outcome bands on the Prospect Baseline 0–100 scale, not guaranteed MLB outcomes.

Forecast

Statistical projections

No statistical forecast is published for this player. The current profile data does not include a documented rate forecast method, target population, or validation results.

Development Trajectory

Recorded Baseline assessments

Latest recorded Baseline: 78 on 2026-10-12 · Current Floor 70, Baseline 78, Ceiling 81

Recorded history Current Floor–Ceiling range

The chart connects recorded points only within the same model version and starts a new segment across gaps longer than 120 days. Routine point markers are suppressed; changes of 8 or more Baseline points are marked. The vertical whisker shows the current range and Baseline.

View recorded values

Date	Baseline	Model version
2026-10-12	78	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-09	78	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-08	78	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-07	78	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-05	78	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-04	78	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-03	79	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-30	79	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-29	79	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-25	79	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-24	79	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-22	79	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-21	79	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-19	79	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-18	79	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-17	79	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-16	79	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-15	79	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-14	79	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-09	79	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-06	77	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-09-05	77	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-09-03	77	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-09-02	77	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-09-01	77	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-28	77	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-27	78	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-25	79	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-08-23	79	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-22	79	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-20	79	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-19	79	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-18	80	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-17	80	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-16	80	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-14	80	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-13	80	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-11	80	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-10	80	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-09	80	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-08	80	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-07	80	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-05	78	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-03	78	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-01	78	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-31	77	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-30	77	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-29	77	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-28	77	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-27	77	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-26	77	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-25	77	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-24	78	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-23	78	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-22	78	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-21	78	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-16	82	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-14	82	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-12	82	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-11	82	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-09	82	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-07	79	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-05	79	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-03	79	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-01	79	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-30	79	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-29	79	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-28	79	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-26	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-25	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-24	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-23	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-22	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-21	81	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-20	77	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-19	77	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-18	77	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-17	77	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-16	76	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-15	77	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-14	77	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-13	77	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-12	77	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-11	77	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-10	77	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-09	76	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-08	76	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-07	76	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-06	76	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-05	76	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-04	76	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4

Development Outlook

Upside and risk

↑ Upside

The current Ceiling of 81 is 3 points above the Baseline. This is an outcome range, not a timed forecast.

⚑ Risk Factors

Model Risk Index: 0/100. This is a model measure, not a statement of real-world risk. Model confidence is 92/100 and is measured separately. Data quality and developmental uncertainty are also distinct.