Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 3, 2026
Player profile

Josh Stephan

TOR · AAA · P

Toronto Blue Jays · Age at assessment: 24.9 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 3, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#896
Prospect Score57.4
Median54
Performance Signal-10.1
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
475460
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -10.1

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 53 Latest recorded 54
58 53.5 49 2026-08-14 · Median 53 2026-08-16 · Median 53 2026-08-17 · Median 53 2026-08-18 · Median 53 2026-08-19 · Median 54 2026-08-20 · Median 54 2026-08-22 · Median 54 2026-08-23 · Median 53.8 2026-08-25 · Median 53.8 2026-08-27 · Median 54 2026-08-28 · Median 54 2026-09-01 · Median 54 2026-09-02 · Median 54 2026-09-03 · Median 54 2026-09-05 · Median 54 2026-09-06 · Median 54 2026-09-09 · Median 54 2026-09-14 · Median 53.9 2026-09-15 · Median 54 2026-09-16 · Median 54 2026-09-17 · Median 54 2026-09-18 · Median 54 2026-09-19 · Median 54 2026-09-21 · Median 54 2026-09-22 · Median 54 2026-09-24 · Median 54 2026-09-25 · Median 54 2026-09-29 · Median 54 2026-09-30 · Median 54 2026-10-03 · Median 54 2026-08-14 2026-10-03

2026-10-03 · Median 54

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0354
2026-09-3054
2026-09-2954
2026-09-2554
2026-09-2454
2026-09-2254
2026-09-2154
2026-09-1954
2026-09-1854
2026-09-1754
2026-09-1654
2026-09-1554
2026-09-1453.9
2026-09-0954
2026-09-0654
2026-09-0554
2026-09-0354
2026-09-0254
2026-09-0154
2026-08-2854
2026-08-2754
2026-08-2553.8
2026-08-2353.8
2026-08-2254
2026-08-2054
2026-08-1954
2026-08-1853
2026-08-1753
2026-08-1653
2026-08-1453

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 64
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 0
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
475460
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -10.1

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 0
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence64
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection42.6
Projected range20–65
Arrival probability39%
Productive role probability4%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.