Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Juan Carela

CWS · AA · P · Age 25

Bats R · Throws R
Prospect Score49.0#1,799 Overall
Baseline46Most likely outcome
Performance42Developing performance profile
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor40Lower-end outcome
Baseline46Most likely outcome
Ceiling53High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

Performance

Selected evidence
42Developing performance profile
Miss ability8.8 K/9Near expected range
Command4.4 BB/9Command risk
Traffic prevention1.49 WHIPElevated traffic

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale

Individual scouting grades are not currently available for this player.

Model Detail
ConfidenceSolid60How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskHigh10Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection43.0
Projected Range18–68
Arrival Probability9%
Productive Role Probability1%
Player Background
OrganizationChicago White Sox
LevelAA
PositionP
BatsR
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 48 Latest recorded 46
52 46 40 2026-09-02 · Median 48 2026-09-03 · Median 48 2026-09-05 · Median 48 2026-09-06 · Median 48 2026-09-09 · Median 44 2026-09-14 · Median 46.7 2026-09-15 · Median 46 2026-09-16 · Median 46 2026-09-17 · Median 46 2026-09-18 · Median 46 2026-09-19 · Median 46 2026-09-21 · Median 46 2026-09-22 · Median 46 2026-09-24 · Median 46 2026-09-25 · Median 46 2026-09-29 · Median 46 2026-09-30 · Median 46 2026-10-03 · Median 46 2026-10-04 · Median 46 2026-10-05 · Median 46 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 46

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0546
2026-10-0446
2026-10-0346
2026-09-3046
2026-09-2946
2026-09-2546
2026-09-2446
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2026-09-2146
2026-09-1946
2026-09-1846
2026-09-1746
2026-09-1646
2026-09-1546
2026-09-1446.7
2026-09-0944
2026-09-0648
2026-09-0548
2026-09-0348
2026-09-0248