Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Juan Rivera

KC · DSL · P · Age 20

Bats R · Throws R
Prospect Score23.0#5,694 Overall
Baseline28Most likely outcome
Performance29Developing performance profile
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor20Lower-end outcome
Baseline28Most likely outcome
Ceiling39High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of meaningful developmental upside. The primary separator is whether the current progress can hold while projection risk remains elevated.

Performance

Selected evidence
29Developing performance profile
Miss ability5.7 K/9Limited miss signal
Dominance3.2% K-BBNarrow strikeout-to-walk margin
Traffic prevention1.69 WHIPElevated traffic

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale

Individual scouting grades are not currently available for this player.

Model Detail
ConfidenceDeveloping40How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskLimited71Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection42.5
Projected Range18–67
Arrival Probability0%
Productive Role Probability0%
Player Background
OrganizationKansas City Royals
LevelDSL
PositionP
BatsR
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 28 Latest recorded 28
33 28.5 24 2026-09-02 · Median 28 2026-09-03 · Median 28 2026-09-05 · Median 28 2026-09-06 · Median 28 2026-09-09 · Median 28 2026-09-14 · Median 28.2 2026-09-15 · Median 28 2026-09-16 · Median 28 2026-09-17 · Median 28 2026-09-18 · Median 28 2026-09-19 · Median 28 2026-09-21 · Median 28 2026-09-22 · Median 28 2026-09-24 · Median 28 2026-09-25 · Median 28 2026-09-29 · Median 28 2026-09-30 · Median 28 2026-10-03 · Median 28 2026-10-04 · Median 28 2026-10-05 · Median 28 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 28

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0528
2026-10-0428
2026-10-0328
2026-09-3028
2026-09-2928
2026-09-2528
2026-09-2428
2026-09-2228
2026-09-2128
2026-09-1928
2026-09-1828
2026-09-1728
2026-09-1628
2026-09-1528
2026-09-1428.2
2026-09-0928
2026-09-0628
2026-09-0528
2026-09-0328
2026-09-0228