Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 4, 2026
Player profile

Junior Tavera

NYY · DSL · P

Projection updated October 4, 2026

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

Rank#4,626
Score29.7
Baseline33
Signal-15.6
Trend0.0
Floor23
Baseline33
Ceiling45
Confidence54 Risk62 Model WatchStable model read
Player profile

Junior Tavera

NYY · DSL · P

New York Yankees · Age at assessment: 19.4 · Bats: L · Throws: L

Projection updated: October 4, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#4,626
Prospect Score29.7
Median33
Performance Signal-15.6
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
233345
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -15.6

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 33 Latest recorded 33
38 33.5 29 2026-08-16 · Median 33 2026-08-17 · Median 33 2026-08-18 · Median 33 2026-08-19 · Median 33 2026-08-20 · Median 34 2026-08-22 · Median 34 2026-08-23 · Median 33.8 2026-08-25 · Median 33.8 2026-08-27 · Median 34 2026-08-28 · Median 34 2026-09-01 · Median 34 2026-09-02 · Median 34 2026-09-03 · Median 34 2026-09-05 · Median 34 2026-09-06 · Median 34 2026-09-09 · Median 34 2026-09-14 · Median 33.8 2026-09-15 · Median 34 2026-09-16 · Median 34 2026-09-17 · Median 34 2026-09-18 · Median 34 2026-09-19 · Median 34 2026-09-21 · Median 34 2026-09-22 · Median 34 2026-09-24 · Median 34 2026-09-25 · Median 34 2026-09-29 · Median 33 2026-09-30 · Median 33 2026-10-03 · Median 33 2026-10-04 · Median 33 2026-08-16 2026-10-04

2026-10-04 · Median 33

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0433
2026-10-0333
2026-09-3033
2026-09-2933
2026-09-2534
2026-09-2434
2026-09-2234
2026-09-2134
2026-09-1934
2026-09-1834
2026-09-1734
2026-09-1634
2026-09-1534
2026-09-1433.8
2026-09-0934
2026-09-0634
2026-09-0534
2026-09-0334
2026-09-0234
2026-09-0134
2026-08-2834
2026-08-2734
2026-08-2533.8
2026-08-2333.8
2026-08-2234
2026-08-2034
2026-08-1933
2026-08-1833
2026-08-1733
2026-08-1633

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 54
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 62
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
233345
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -15.6

Profile Context

RiskWide Range · 62
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence54
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection41.7
Projected range17–67
Arrival probability2%
Productive role probability0%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.