Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 3, 2026
Player profile

Kaden Carpenter

TEX · Single-A · RF

Texas Rangers · Age at assessment: 23.3 · Bats: L · Throws: L

Projection updated: October 3, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#1,690
Prospect Score50.0
Median47
Performance Signal+6.3
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
394758
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +6.3

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 41 Latest recorded 47
54 45.5 37 2026-08-20 · Median 41 2026-08-22 · Median 41 2026-08-23 · Median 41.9 2026-08-25 · Median 41.9 2026-08-27 · Median 41 2026-08-28 · Median 41 2026-09-01 · Median 50 2026-09-02 · Median 50 2026-09-03 · Median 49 2026-09-05 · Median 49 2026-09-06 · Median 49 2026-09-09 · Median 48 2026-09-14 · Median 47.3 2026-09-15 · Median 47 2026-09-16 · Median 47 2026-09-17 · Median 47 2026-09-18 · Median 47 2026-09-19 · Median 47 2026-09-21 · Median 47 2026-09-22 · Median 47 2026-09-24 · Median 47 2026-09-25 · Median 47 2026-09-29 · Median 47 2026-09-30 · Median 47 2026-10-03 · Median 47 2026-08-20 2026-10-03

2026-10-03 · Median 47

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0347
2026-09-3047
2026-09-2947
2026-09-2547
2026-09-2447
2026-09-2247
2026-09-2147
2026-09-1947
2026-09-1847
2026-09-1747
2026-09-1647
2026-09-1547
2026-09-1447.3
2026-09-0948
2026-09-0649
2026-09-0549
2026-09-0349
2026-09-0250
2026-09-0150
2026-08-2841
2026-08-2741
2026-08-2541.9
2026-08-2341.9
2026-08-2241
2026-08-2041

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 52
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 12
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
394758
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +6.3

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 12
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence52
TypeHitter

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection44.2
Projected range26–63
Arrival probability3%
Productive role probability1%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.