Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Karson Milbrandt

MIA · AAA · P · Age 23

Bats R · Throws R
Prospect Score70.2#195 Overall
Baseline69Most likely outcome
Performance50Developing performance profile
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor63Lower-end outcome
Baseline69Most likely outcome
Ceiling74High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. The primary separator is whether current performance can close the gap with the longer-term baseline.

Performance

Selected evidence
50Developing performance profile
Miss ability10.7 K/9Strong strikeout signal
Command5.6 BB/9Command risk
Traffic prevention1.54 WHIPElevated traffic

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale
Overall55
Fastball55
Slider55
Curveball55
Changeup40
Control40

Source: MLB Pipeline · Updated 2026-09-21

Model Detail
ConfidenceHigh95How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskHigh10Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection38.8
Projected Range16–62
Arrival Probability44%
Productive Role Probability8%
Player Background
OrganizationMiami Marlins
LevelAAA
PositionP
BatsR
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 67 Latest recorded 69
73 68 63 2026-09-02 · Median 67 2026-09-03 · Median 67 2026-09-05 · Median 67 2026-09-06 · Median 67 2026-09-09 · Median 69 2026-09-14 · Median 68.9 2026-09-15 · Median 69 2026-09-16 · Median 69 2026-09-17 · Median 69 2026-09-18 · Median 69 2026-09-19 · Median 69 2026-09-21 · Median 69 2026-09-22 · Median 69 2026-09-24 · Median 69 2026-09-25 · Median 69 2026-09-29 · Median 69 2026-09-30 · Median 69 2026-10-03 · Median 69 2026-10-04 · Median 69 2026-10-05 · Median 69 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 69

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0569
2026-10-0469
2026-10-0369
2026-09-3069
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2026-09-1468.9
2026-09-0969
2026-09-0667
2026-09-0567
2026-09-0367
2026-09-0267