Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Kelvin Herrera

HOU · DSL · P · Age 19

Bats R · Throws R
Prospect Score17.1#6,144 Overall
Baseline28Most likely outcome
Performance32Developing performance profile
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor20Lower-end outcome
Baseline28Most likely outcome
Ceiling39High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of meaningful developmental upside. The primary separator is whether the current progress can hold while projection risk remains elevated.

Performance

Selected evidence
32Developing performance profile
Miss ability6.9 K/9Limited miss signal
Command10.0 BB/9Command risk
Traffic prevention1.95 WHIPElevated traffic

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale

Individual scouting grades are not currently available for this player.

Model Detail
ConfidenceDeveloping35How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskLimited96Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusInsufficient current-season sample
Player Background
OrganizationHouston Astros
LevelDSL
PositionP
BatsR
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 28 Latest recorded 28 Change +0.1
32 27.5 23 2026-09-02 · Median 27.9 2026-09-03 · Median 27.9 2026-09-05 · Median 27.9 2026-09-06 · Median 27.9 2026-09-09 · Median 27.9 2026-09-14 · Median 27.9 2026-09-15 · Median 27.9 2026-09-16 · Median 28 2026-09-17 · Median 28 2026-09-18 · Median 28 2026-09-19 · Median 28 2026-09-21 · Median 28 2026-09-22 · Median 28 2026-09-24 · Median 28 2026-09-25 · Median 28 2026-09-29 · Median 28 2026-09-30 · Median 28 2026-10-03 · Median 28 2026-10-04 · Median 28 2026-10-05 · Median 28 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 28

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0528
2026-10-0428
2026-10-0328
2026-09-3028
2026-09-2928
2026-09-2528
2026-09-2428
2026-09-2228
2026-09-2128
2026-09-1928
2026-09-1828
2026-09-1728
2026-09-1628
2026-09-1527.9
2026-09-1427.9
2026-09-0927.9
2026-09-0627.9
2026-09-0527.9
2026-09-0327.9
2026-09-0227.9