Prospect Baseline Profile

Liam Doyle

STL · AA · P

Prospect Baseline Rank #53

Player Assessment

Current model read

Liam Doyle's profile is not evenly distributed; one tool is doing most of the separating. Fastball (70) is the clearest carrying tool in the current scouting mix.

Prospect Score & Development

64/100

Solid composite evaluation

Baseline

73/100

Central modeled outcome; separate from Prospect Score.

Confidence

92/100

High confidence

Evidence strength, separate from model risk.

Performance context

Model-derived assessment

59/100

Solid current production

K/9

Miss ability11.4 K/9Strong strikeout signal

BB/9

Command4.7 BB/9Command risk

HR/9

Contact management0.9 HR/9Near expected range

Scouting Profile

20–80 scouting scale

Overall

Fastball

Slider

Control

Grades updated 2026-09-29

Supporting Evidence and What to Watch

Current model assessment

Supporting Evidence

The current Baseline is 73; the model's plausible outcome window runs from 58 on the low end to 76 on the high end. The width matters: the upside is real, but the profile still has enough unresolved information to produce materially different outcomes. The supporting evidence is comparatively mature, so future movement should require a more meaningful change in performance or scouting information.

What to Watch

Watch whether the fastball continues to separate as the competition gets better. The profile does not need every tool to jump; it needs the carrying skill to remain impactful enough to support the overall role. If that tool holds while the secondary skills improve even modestly, the Baseline has room to strengthen.

Model factors and risk context

Model Risk Index10

Age to level60

Track record63

Data quality100

Risk, age-to-level, track record and data quality are separate model fields. A missing value is not zero.

Projected Outcome Range

Floor 58Baseline 73Ceiling 76

These are modeled outcome bands on the Prospect Baseline 0–100 scale, not guaranteed MLB outcomes.

Forecast

Statistical projections

No statistical forecast is published for this player. The current profile data does not include a documented rate forecast method, target population, or validation results.

Development Trajectory

Recorded Baseline assessments

Latest recorded Baseline: 73 on 2026-10-12 · Current Floor 58, Baseline 73, Ceiling 76

Recorded history Current Floor–Ceiling range

The chart connects recorded points only within the same model version and starts a new segment across gaps longer than 120 days. Routine point markers are suppressed; changes of 8 or more Baseline points are marked. The vertical whisker shows the current range and Baseline.

View recorded values

Date	Baseline	Model version
2026-10-12	73	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-09	73	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-08	73	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-07	72	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-05	72	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-04	72	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-03	72	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-30	72	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-29	72	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-25	72	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-24	72	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-22	72	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-21	72	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-19	72	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-18	72	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-17	72	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-16	72	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-15	72	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-14	72	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-09	72	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-06	72	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-09-05	72	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-09-03	72	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-09-02	72	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-09-01	72	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-28	72	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-27	72	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-25	72	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-08-23	72	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-22	72	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-20	72	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-19	72	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-18	72	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-17	72	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-16	72	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-14	75	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-13	75	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-11	75	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-10	75	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-09	75	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-08	75	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-07	75	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-05	75	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-03	75	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-01	75	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-31	75	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-30	75	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-29	75	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-28	76	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-27	76	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-26	76	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-25	76	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-24	76	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-23	76	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-22	76	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-21	76	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-16	76	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-14	76	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-12	76	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-11	76	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-09	76	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-07	76	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-05	76	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-03	77	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-01	80	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-30	80	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-29	80	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-28	80	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-26	80	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-25	80	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-24	80	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-23	80	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-22	80	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-21	80	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-20	80	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-19	80	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-18	80	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-17	80	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-16	80	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-15	80	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-14	80	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-13	80	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-12	80	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-11	80	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-10	80	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-09	80	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-08	80	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-07	80	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-06	80	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-05	80	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-04	80	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4

Development Outlook

Upside and risk

↑ Upside

The current Ceiling of 76 is 3 points above the Baseline. This is an outcome range, not a timed forecast.

⚑ Risk Factors

Model Risk Index: 10/100. This is a model measure, not a statement of real-world risk. Model confidence is 92/100 and is measured separately. Data quality and developmental uncertainty are also distinct.