Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Lucas Braun

KC · AAA · P · Age 25

Bats R · Throws R
Prospect Score65.2#378 Overall
Baseline59Most likely outcome
Performance54Developing performance profile
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor55Lower-end outcome
Baseline59Most likely outcome
Ceiling63High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

Performance

Selected evidence
54Developing performance profile
Miss ability8.2 K/9Near expected range
Command2.7 BB/9Near expected range
Contact management1.2 HR/9Near expected range

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale
Overall45
Fastball45
Slider50
Curveball45
Changeup50
Control55

Source: MLB Pipeline · Updated 2026-09-21

Model Detail
ConfidenceHigh93How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskHigh0Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection44.9
Projected Range22–68
Arrival Probability46%
Productive Role Probability6%
Player Background
OrganizationKansas City Royals
LevelAAA
PositionP
BatsR
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 56 Latest recorded 59
63 57.5 52 2026-09-02 · Median 56 2026-09-03 · Median 56 2026-09-05 · Median 56 2026-09-06 · Median 56 2026-09-09 · Median 58 2026-09-14 · Median 57.5 2026-09-15 · Median 58 2026-09-16 · Median 58 2026-09-17 · Median 58 2026-09-18 · Median 58 2026-09-19 · Median 58 2026-09-21 · Median 58 2026-09-22 · Median 58 2026-09-24 · Median 58 2026-09-25 · Median 58 2026-09-29 · Median 59 2026-09-30 · Median 59 2026-10-03 · Median 59 2026-10-04 · Median 59 2026-10-05 · Median 59 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 59

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0559
2026-10-0459
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2026-09-1457.5
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2026-09-0256