Prospect Baseline Profile
Lucas Kelly
SEA · AA · P
Bats R · Throws RPB Rank#319Overall ranking
Baseline62Positive outcome
Trend-19.4Falling
Confidence88Strength of available evidence
Projected Outcome
Fixed 20–100 scaleFloor60Lower-end outcome
Baseline62Most likely outcome
Ceiling67High-end outcome
Scouting Profile
20–80 scaleSource: MLB Pipeline · Updated 2026-10-05
Why He Stands Out
Performance Grade (61) is 21 points above the verified Scout Grade (40); the derived projection is cooling.
What the Model Sees
Baseline is 62, between a 60 Floor and 67 Ceiling on Prospect Baseline’s outcome scale. The narrow range reflects a more contained model outlook.
What to Watch
Track whether performance and scouting evidence converge.
Performance
Selected evidence61Solid current performance
Miss ability14.7 K/9Strong strikeout signal
Command5.3 BB/9Command risk
Contact management0.5 HR/9Limits damaging contact
Model Detail
Prospect ScoreDeveloping54Composite score used to sort the current board.
RiskHigh10Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
Player Background
OrganizationSeattle Mariners
LevelAA
PositionP
BatsR
ThrowsR
Development History
Model history
Median movement
First recorded 63
Latest recorded 62
Change -1.0
2026-10-07 · Median 62
View recorded values
| Date | Median |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | 62 |
| 2026-10-05 | 62 |
| 2026-10-04 | 62 |
| 2026-10-03 | 62 |
| 2026-09-30 | 62 |
| 2026-09-29 | 62 |
| 2026-09-25 | 62 |
| 2026-09-24 | 63 |
| 2026-09-22 | 63 |
| 2026-09-21 | 62 |
| 2026-09-19 | 62 |
| 2026-09-18 | 63 |
| 2026-09-17 | 63 |
| 2026-09-16 | 63 |
| 2026-09-15 | 63 |