Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 4, 2026
Player profile

Lucas Knowles

LAA · AA · P

Projection updated October 4, 2026

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank. Present performance is lifting the composite above the long-term median outcome.

Rank#4,969
Score27.6
Baseline27
Signal-7.7
Trend-0.7
Floor20
Baseline27
Ceiling37
Confidence58 Risk27 Model WatchStable model read
Player profile

Lucas Knowles

LAA · AA · P

Los Angeles Angels · Age at assessment: 28.6 · Bats: L · Throws: L

Projection updated: October 4, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank. Present performance is lifting the composite above the long-term median outcome.

PB Rank#4,969
Prospect Score27.6
Median27
Performance Signal-7.7
Trend-0.7

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range-0.7
202737
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -7.7

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 25 Latest recorded 27
32 25.5 19 2026-08-16 · Median 25 2026-08-17 · Median 25 2026-08-18 · Median 25 2026-08-19 · Median 25 2026-08-20 · Median 24 2026-08-22 · Median 24 2026-08-23 · Median 24.1 2026-08-25 · Median 24.1 2026-08-27 · Median 24 2026-08-28 · Median 24 2026-09-01 · Median 23 2026-09-02 · Median 23 2026-09-03 · Median 23 2026-09-05 · Median 23 2026-09-06 · Median 23 2026-09-09 · Median 28 2026-09-14 · Median 27.2 2026-09-15 · Median 27 2026-09-16 · Median 27 2026-09-17 · Median 27 2026-09-18 · Median 27 2026-09-19 · Median 27 2026-09-21 · Median 27 2026-09-22 · Median 27 2026-09-24 · Median 27 2026-09-25 · Median 27 2026-09-29 · Median 27 2026-09-30 · Median 27 2026-10-03 · Median 27 2026-10-04 · Median 27 2026-08-16 2026-10-04

2026-10-04 · Median 27

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0427
2026-10-0327
2026-09-3027
2026-09-2927
2026-09-2527
2026-09-2427
2026-09-2227
2026-09-2127
2026-09-1927
2026-09-1827
2026-09-1727
2026-09-1627
2026-09-1527
2026-09-1427.2
2026-09-0928
2026-09-0623
2026-09-0523
2026-09-0323
2026-09-0223
2026-09-0123
2026-08-2824
2026-08-2724
2026-08-2524.1
2026-08-2324.1
2026-08-2224
2026-08-2024
2026-08-1925
2026-08-1825
2026-08-1725
2026-08-1625

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 58
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 27
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range-0.7
202737
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -7.7

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 27
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence58
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection41.8
Projected range19–65
Arrival probability11%
Productive role probability1%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.