Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Luis Fragoza

MIN · High-A · OF · Age 20

Bats R · Throws R
Prospect Score72.1#147 Overall
Baseline69Most likely outcome
Performance63Solid current performance
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor64Lower-end outcome
Baseline69Most likely outcome
Ceiling74High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

Performance

Selected evidence
63Solid current performance
Offensive impact.951 OPSStrong overall offensive impact
Contact26.8% KNear expected range
On-base foundation.408 OBPStrong on-base foundation

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale
Overall40
Hit45
Power55
Run50
Field50
Arm50

Source: MLB Pipeline · Updated 2026-09-01

Model Detail
ConfidenceHigh91How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskHigh3Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection37.5
Projected Range22–53
Arrival Probability55%
Productive Role Probability10%
Player Background
OrganizationMinnesota Twins
LevelHigh-A
PositionOF
BatsR
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 63 Latest recorded 69
73 66 59 2026-09-02 · Median 63 2026-09-03 · Median 63 2026-09-05 · Median 63 2026-09-06 · Median 63 2026-09-09 · Median 69 2026-09-14 · Median 68.4 2026-09-15 · Median 68 2026-09-16 · Median 68 2026-09-17 · Median 68 2026-09-18 · Median 68 2026-09-19 · Median 68 2026-09-21 · Median 68 2026-09-22 · Median 68 2026-09-24 · Median 68 2026-09-25 · Median 68 2026-09-29 · Median 69 2026-09-30 · Median 69 2026-10-03 · Median 69 2026-10-04 · Median 69 2026-10-05 · Median 69 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 69

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0569
2026-10-0469
2026-10-0369
2026-09-3069
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2026-09-2168
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2026-09-1468.4
2026-09-0969
2026-09-0663
2026-09-0563
2026-09-0363
2026-09-0263