Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Luis Serna

NYY · High-A · P · Age 22

Bats R · Throws R
Prospect Score66.4#319 Overall
Baseline60Most likely outcome
Performance60Solid current performance
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor56Lower-end outcome
Baseline60Most likely outcome
Ceiling65High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

Performance

Selected evidence
60Solid current performance
Miss ability10.6 K/9Strong strikeout signal
Dominance20.0% K-BBStrong strikeout-to-walk foundation
Traffic prevention1.19 WHIPNear expected range

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale
Overall40
Fastball50
Slider45
Changeup60
Control50

Source: MLB Pipeline · Updated 2026-09-29

Model Detail
ConfidenceHigh90How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskHigh0Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection48.9
Projected Range28–70
Arrival Probability40%
Productive Role Probability5%
Player Background
OrganizationNew York Yankees
LevelHigh-A
PositionP
BatsR
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 61 Latest recorded 60
65 60.5 56 2026-09-02 · Median 61 2026-09-03 · Median 61 2026-09-05 · Median 61 2026-09-06 · Median 61 2026-09-09 · Median 61 2026-09-14 · Median 60.5 2026-09-15 · Median 60 2026-09-16 · Median 60 2026-09-17 · Median 60 2026-09-18 · Median 60 2026-09-19 · Median 60 2026-09-21 · Median 60 2026-09-22 · Median 60 2026-09-24 · Median 60 2026-09-25 · Median 60 2026-09-29 · Median 60 2026-09-30 · Median 60 2026-10-03 · Median 60 2026-10-04 · Median 60 2026-10-05 · Median 60 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 60

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0560
2026-10-0460
2026-10-0360
2026-09-3060
2026-09-2960
2026-09-2560
2026-09-2460
2026-09-2260
2026-09-2160
2026-09-1960
2026-09-1860
2026-09-1760
2026-09-1660
2026-09-1560
2026-09-1460.5
2026-09-0961
2026-09-0661
2026-09-0561
2026-09-0361
2026-09-0261