Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Manuel Pena

ARI · AAA · 2B · Age 23

Bats L · Throws R
Prospect Score72.1#149 Overall
Baseline69Most likely outcome
Performance61Solid current performance
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor64Lower-end outcome
Baseline69Most likely outcome
Ceiling74High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

Performance

Selected evidence
61Solid current performance
Power.251 ISOAbove-average game power
Contact23.5% KNear expected range
Approach6.1% BBNear expected range

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale
Overall40
Hit50
Power50
Run45
Field45
Arm50

Source: MLB Pipeline · Updated 2026-09-01

Model Detail
ConfidenceHigh95How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskHigh0Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection38.9
Projected Range22–56
Arrival Probability83%
Productive Role Probability20%
Player Background
OrganizationArizona Diamondbacks
LevelAAA
Position2B
BatsL
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 60 Latest recorded 69
73 64.5 56 2026-09-02 · Median 60 2026-09-03 · Median 60 2026-09-05 · Median 60 2026-09-06 · Median 60 2026-09-09 · Median 68 2026-09-14 · Median 67.8 2026-09-15 · Median 68 2026-09-16 · Median 68 2026-09-17 · Median 68 2026-09-18 · Median 68 2026-09-19 · Median 68 2026-09-21 · Median 68 2026-09-22 · Median 68 2026-09-24 · Median 68 2026-09-25 · Median 68 2026-09-29 · Median 69 2026-09-30 · Median 69 2026-10-03 · Median 69 2026-10-04 · Median 69 2026-10-05 · Median 69 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 69

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0569
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2026-09-1467.8
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