Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 3, 2026
Player profile

Mason Olson

TOR · AA · P

Toronto Blue Jays · Age at assessment: 24.8 · Bats: R · Throws: L

Projection updated: October 3, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#947
Prospect Score56.7
Median53
Performance Signal+3.5
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
475360
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +3.5

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 43 Latest recorded 53
58 48 38 2026-08-14 · Median 43 2026-08-16 · Median 43 2026-08-17 · Median 43 2026-08-18 · Median 42 2026-08-19 · Median 42 2026-08-20 · Median 42 2026-08-22 · Median 42 2026-08-23 · Median 42.4 2026-08-25 · Median 42.4 2026-08-27 · Median 42 2026-08-28 · Median 42 2026-09-01 · Median 42 2026-09-02 · Median 42 2026-09-03 · Median 42 2026-09-05 · Median 42 2026-09-06 · Median 42 2026-09-09 · Median 53 2026-09-14 · Median 53.8 2026-09-15 · Median 54 2026-09-16 · Median 54 2026-09-17 · Median 54 2026-09-18 · Median 54 2026-09-19 · Median 54 2026-09-21 · Median 54 2026-09-22 · Median 54 2026-09-24 · Median 53 2026-09-25 · Median 53 2026-09-29 · Median 53 2026-09-30 · Median 53 2026-10-03 · Median 53 2026-08-14 2026-10-03

2026-10-03 · Median 53

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0353
2026-09-3053
2026-09-2953
2026-09-2553
2026-09-2453
2026-09-2254
2026-09-2154
2026-09-1954
2026-09-1854
2026-09-1754
2026-09-1654
2026-09-1554
2026-09-1453.8
2026-09-0953
2026-09-0642
2026-09-0542
2026-09-0342
2026-09-0242
2026-09-0142
2026-08-2842
2026-08-2742
2026-08-2542.4
2026-08-2342.4
2026-08-2242
2026-08-2042
2026-08-1942
2026-08-1842
2026-08-1743
2026-08-1643
2026-08-1443

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 61
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 10
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
475360
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +3.5

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 10
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence61
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection50.1
Projected range27–73
Arrival probability48%
Productive role probability8%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.