Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Mavis Graves

PHI · AA · P · Age 23

Bats L · Throws L
Prospect Score66.2#327 Overall
Baseline62Most likely outcome
Performance60Solid current performance
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor58Lower-end outcome
Baseline62Most likely outcome
Ceiling66High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

Performance

Selected evidence
60Solid current performance
Miss ability13.7 K/9Strong strikeout signal
Command5.0 BB/9Command risk
Contact management1.4 HR/9Home-run contact is a concern

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale
Overall40
Fastball50
Slider55
Changeup50
Control45

Source: MLB Pipeline · Updated 2026-09-01

Model Detail
ConfidenceHigh91How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskHigh10Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection46.8
Projected Range22–72
Arrival Probability47%
Productive Role Probability8%
Player Background
OrganizationPhiladelphia Phillies
LevelAA
PositionP
BatsL
ThrowsL
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 59 Latest recorded 62
67 61 55 2026-09-02 · Median 59 2026-09-03 · Median 59 2026-09-05 · Median 59 2026-09-06 · Median 59 2026-09-09 · Median 62 2026-09-14 · Median 62.5 2026-09-15 · Median 63 2026-09-16 · Median 63 2026-09-17 · Median 62 2026-09-18 · Median 62 2026-09-19 · Median 63 2026-09-21 · Median 63 2026-09-22 · Median 63 2026-09-24 · Median 63 2026-09-25 · Median 63 2026-09-29 · Median 62 2026-09-30 · Median 62 2026-10-03 · Median 62 2026-10-04 · Median 62 2026-10-05 · Median 62 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 62

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
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2026-09-1462.5
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