Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Sep 24, 2026 · 8:41 AM ET

Included in the latest imported public model. All figures reflect the saved assessment dates.

Player profile

Michael Morales

SEA · AA · P IL(7-Day)

Seattle Mariners · Age at assessment: 24.1 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Tools Ahead of Results
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Assessment saved: · Stats updated:

Stuff not yet translating

The verified pitch-quality expectation is running ahead of current bat-missing results

High Confidence · 99%
PB Rank#1,999
Prospect Score48
Median43
Performance34
Trend0.0%

Why the player is here

  • Best pitch grade 50; dominance evidence sits near the 13th percentile for comparable pitchers
  • K/9 is 8.0

Context for this assessment, not a verified explanation for movement between model runs.

Tool vs observed results

Percentile scale
Stuff-36.9 percentile gap
Expected 50 Observed 13
Command-13.9 percentile gap
Expected 42 Observed 28

Verified tool expectations alongside results for comparable players. Percentiles are not scouting grades.

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 41 Latest recorded 43
50 43.5 37 2026-06-04 · Median 41 2026-06-05 · Median 41 2026-06-06 · Median 41 2026-06-07 · Median 41 2026-06-08 · Median 41 2026-06-09 · Median 41 2026-06-10 · Median 41 2026-06-11 · Median 42 2026-06-12 · Median 42 2026-06-13 · Median 42 2026-06-14 · Median 42 2026-06-15 · Median 42 2026-06-16 · Median 42 2026-06-17 · Median 44 2026-06-18 · Median 44 2026-06-19 · Median 44 2026-06-20 · Median 44 2026-06-21 · Median 44 2026-06-22 · Median 44 2026-06-23 · Median 44 2026-06-24 · Median 43 2026-06-25 · Median 43 2026-06-26 · Median 43 2026-06-28 · Median 43 2026-06-29 · Median 43 2026-06-30 · Median 43 2026-07-01 · Median 43 2026-07-03 · Median 46 2026-07-05 · Median 46 2026-07-07 · Median 46 2026-07-09 · Median 46 2026-07-11 · Median 45 2026-07-12 · Median 45 2026-07-14 · Median 45 2026-07-16 · Median 45 2026-07-21 · Median 45 2026-07-22 · Median 45 2026-07-23 · Median 44 2026-07-24 · Median 44 2026-07-25 · Median 44 2026-07-26 · Median 44 2026-07-27 · Median 44 2026-07-28 · Median 44 2026-07-29 · Median 42 2026-07-30 · Median 42 2026-07-31 · Median 42 2026-08-01 · Median 42 2026-08-03 · Median 42 2026-08-05 · Median 42 2026-08-07 · Median 42 2026-08-08 · Median 42 2026-08-09 · Median 42 2026-08-10 · Median 42 2026-08-11 · Median 42 2026-08-13 · Median 42 2026-08-14 · Median 42 2026-08-16 · Median 42 2026-08-17 · Median 42 2026-08-18 · Median 42 2026-08-19 · Median 42 2026-08-20 · Median 42.4 2026-08-27 · Median 41 2026-08-28 · Median 41 2026-09-01 · Median 41 2026-09-02 · Median 41 2026-09-03 · Median 41 2026-09-05 · Median 41 2026-09-06 · Median 41 2026-09-09 · Median 43 2026-09-14 · Median 42.7 2026-09-15 · Median 43 2026-09-16 · Median 43 2026-09-17 · Median 43 2026-09-18 · Median 43 2026-09-19 · Median 43 2026-09-21 · Median 43 2026-09-22 · Median 43 2026-09-24 · Median 43 2026-06-04 2026-09-24

2026-09-24 · Median 43

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-09-2443
2026-09-2243
2026-09-2143
2026-09-1943
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2026-06-0441

Metrics to follow

K/9 8.0

Primary bat-missing indicator

Definition

Strikeouts recorded per nine innings pitched

K-BB% 5.8%

Separates dominance from walk cost

Definition

Strikeout percentage minus walk percentage, a compact measure of pitcher dominance and control

BB/9 5.7

Shows whether control is limiting the arsenal

Definition

Walks allowed per nine innings pitched. Lower is generally better

Next checkpointRecheck K/9, K-BB%, and BB/9 after the next 20 innings

2026 season

Current season · regular season
G17
IP66.1
ERA6.11
WHIP1.51
K/98.0
BB/95.7
K-BB%5.8%

Arkansas Travelers · AA · Updated

Scouting Scenario Range

Model Range0.0%
384347
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance 34

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 16
MLB / Model Watch
Confidence91
TypePitcher

Backtested Forecasts

Separate from scouting grades
2027 MiLB production36.8
Historical 80% error band12–62
MLB arrival in 3 years7%
Productive MLB role in 3 years1%

The next-season score assumes at least 20 IP. A productive MLB role means a regular playing-time season with above-average measured hitting or pitching production. This is not a WAR forecast.

Scouting Tools

Source: Verified public scouting report
Fastball icon
Fastball45Fringe
Slider icon
Slider45Fringe
Curveball icon
Curveball50Avg
Cutter icon
Cutter40Developmental
Changeup icon
Changeup50Avg
Command icon
Control45Fringe
Overall icon
Overall40Developmental

Tool Profile

Tool ProfileFastballSliderCurveballCutterChangeupCommand20-80 grade scaleArchetype: Pitch Mix

Player Stats

Recent regular season
PeriodTeamLevelWLERAGGSSVIPHRERHRBBSOWHIPK/9
Last 7 daysNo recent game logs available
Last 30 daysNo recent game logs available
Year-by-year regular season
YearTeamLevelWLERAGGSSVIPHRERHRBBSOWHIPK/9
2026Arkansas TravelersAA246.111717066.15846451142591.518.01
2025Arkansas TravelersAA474.6022220101.21055752537701.406.20
2024Arkansas TravelersAA413.881212065.05831281113671.099.28
2024Everett AquaSoxHigh-A912.361515084.0782322225801.238.57
20242 teams · TotalAll levels1323.0227270149.0136545013381471.178.88
2023Modesto NutsSingle-A544.5322220101.19260517401061.309.41
2022Modesto NutsSingle-A575.9126260120.1143967914501251.609.35
2021ACL MarinersACL0018.001101.02220113.009.00

Regular season only. Totals combine team and level stints. Recent windows overlap and use cached game logs. Stats refreshed: 2026-09-22T00:11:19.

More Seattle Mariners profiles

Organization reflects each player's saved assessment.