Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 3, 2026
Player profile

Miguel Toscano

TB · Single-A · P

Tampa Bay Rays · Age at assessment: 20.4 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 3, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#1,480
Prospect Score51.7
Median48
Performance Signal-5.1
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
414855
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -5.1

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 41 Latest recorded 48
53 43.5 34 2026-07-14 · Median 41 2026-07-16 · Median 41 2026-07-21 · Median 40 2026-07-22 · Median 40 2026-07-23 · Median 38 2026-08-20 · Median 47 2026-08-22 · Median 47 2026-08-23 · Median 46.6 2026-08-25 · Median 46.6 2026-08-27 · Median 47 2026-08-28 · Median 47 2026-09-01 · Median 47 2026-09-02 · Median 47 2026-09-03 · Median 47 2026-09-05 · Median 47 2026-09-06 · Median 47 2026-09-09 · Median 48 2026-09-14 · Median 48.1 2026-09-15 · Median 48 2026-09-16 · Median 48 2026-09-17 · Median 48 2026-09-18 · Median 48 2026-09-19 · Median 48 2026-09-21 · Median 48 2026-09-22 · Median 48 2026-09-24 · Median 48 2026-09-25 · Median 48 2026-09-29 · Median 48 2026-09-30 · Median 48 2026-10-03 · Median 48 2026-07-14 2026-10-03

2026-10-03 · Median 48

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0348
2026-09-3048
2026-09-2948
2026-09-2548
2026-09-2448
2026-09-2248
2026-09-2148
2026-09-1948
2026-09-1848
2026-09-1748
2026-09-1648
2026-09-1548
2026-09-1448.1
2026-09-0948
2026-09-0647
2026-09-0547
2026-09-0347
2026-09-0247
2026-09-0147
2026-08-2847
2026-08-2747
2026-08-2546.6
2026-08-2346.6
2026-08-2247
2026-08-2047
2026-07-2338
2026-07-2240
2026-07-2140
2026-07-1641
2026-07-1441

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 58
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 0
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
414855
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -5.1

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 0
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence58
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection41.0
Projected range16–66
Arrival probability3%
Productive role probability0%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.