Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 3, 2026
Player profile

Olmedo Barria

NYM · DSL · P

New York Mets · Age at assessment: 19.8 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 3, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank. Present performance is lifting the composite above the long-term median outcome.

PB Rank#1,198
Prospect Score54.1
Median53
Performance Signal+32.0
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
445364
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +32.0

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 53 Latest recorded 53
58 53.5 49 2026-08-14 · Median 53 2026-08-16 · Median 53 2026-08-17 · Median 53 2026-08-18 · Median 53 2026-08-19 · Median 53 2026-08-20 · Median 53 2026-08-22 · Median 53 2026-08-23 · Median 53.4 2026-08-25 · Median 53.4 2026-08-27 · Median 53 2026-08-28 · Median 53 2026-09-01 · Median 53 2026-09-02 · Median 53 2026-09-03 · Median 53 2026-09-05 · Median 53 2026-09-06 · Median 53 2026-09-09 · Median 53 2026-09-14 · Median 53.4 2026-09-15 · Median 53 2026-09-16 · Median 53 2026-09-17 · Median 53 2026-09-18 · Median 53 2026-09-19 · Median 53 2026-09-21 · Median 53 2026-09-22 · Median 53 2026-09-24 · Median 53 2026-09-25 · Median 53 2026-09-29 · Median 53 2026-09-30 · Median 53 2026-10-03 · Median 53 2026-08-14 2026-10-03

2026-10-03 · Median 53

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0353
2026-09-3053
2026-09-2953
2026-09-2553
2026-09-2453
2026-09-2253
2026-09-2153
2026-09-1953
2026-09-1853
2026-09-1753
2026-09-1653
2026-09-1553
2026-09-1453.4
2026-09-0953
2026-09-0653
2026-09-0553
2026-09-0353
2026-09-0253
2026-09-0153
2026-08-2853
2026-08-2753
2026-08-2553.4
2026-08-2353.4
2026-08-2253
2026-08-2053
2026-08-1953
2026-08-1853
2026-08-1753
2026-08-1653
2026-08-1453

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 53
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 38
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
445364
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +32.0

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 38
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence53
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection61.5
Projected range37–86
Arrival probability5%
Productive role probability1%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.