Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 3, 2026
Player profile

Oscar Rayo

KC · AA · P

Kansas City Royals · Age at assessment: 24.7 · Bats: L · Throws: L

Projection updated: October 3, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#855
Prospect Score57.9
Median55
Performance Signal+8.8
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
485561
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +8.8

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 44 Latest recorded 55
59 48.5 38 2026-08-10 · Median 44 2026-08-11 · Median 44 2026-08-13 · Median 44 2026-08-14 · Median 44 2026-08-16 · Median 44 2026-08-17 · Median 44 2026-08-18 · Median 44 2026-08-19 · Median 44 2026-08-20 · Median 43.9 2026-08-27 · Median 43 2026-08-28 · Median 43 2026-09-01 · Median 42 2026-09-02 · Median 42 2026-09-03 · Median 42 2026-09-05 · Median 42 2026-09-06 · Median 42 2026-09-09 · Median 53 2026-09-14 · Median 53.4 2026-09-15 · Median 53 2026-09-16 · Median 53 2026-09-17 · Median 53 2026-09-18 · Median 53 2026-09-19 · Median 53 2026-09-21 · Median 53 2026-09-22 · Median 53 2026-09-24 · Median 55 2026-09-25 · Median 55 2026-09-29 · Median 55 2026-09-30 · Median 55 2026-10-03 · Median 55 2026-08-10 2026-10-03

2026-10-03 · Median 55

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0355
2026-09-3055
2026-09-2955
2026-09-2555
2026-09-2455
2026-09-2253
2026-09-2153
2026-09-1953
2026-09-1853
2026-09-1753
2026-09-1653
2026-09-1553
2026-09-1453.4
2026-09-0953
2026-09-0642
2026-09-0542
2026-09-0342
2026-09-0242
2026-09-0142
2026-08-2843
2026-08-2743
2026-08-2043.9
2026-08-1944
2026-08-1844
2026-08-1744
2026-08-1644
2026-08-1444
2026-08-1344
2026-08-1144
2026-08-1044

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 62
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 10
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
485561
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +8.8

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 10
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence62
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection45.0
Projected range20–70
Arrival probability20%
Productive role probability3%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.