Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Owen Carey

ATL · AA · OF · Age 20

Bats L · Throws L
Prospect Score69.7#212 Overall
Baseline66Most likely outcome
Performance54Developing performance profile
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor61Lower-end outcome
Baseline66Most likely outcome
Ceiling71High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. The primary separator is whether current performance can close the gap with the longer-term baseline.

Performance

Selected evidence
54Developing performance profile
Balanced Performance Profile

No individual statistical signal is disproportionately driving the current Performance Score.

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale
Overall40
Hit50
Power40
Run55
Field60
Arm45

Source: MLB Pipeline · Updated 2026-09-29

Model Detail
ConfidenceHigh94How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskHigh0Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection41.2
Projected Range24–59
Arrival Probability58%
Productive Role Probability11%
Player Background
OrganizationAtlanta Braves
LevelAA
PositionOF
BatsL
ThrowsL
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 65 Latest recorded 66
72 66.5 61 2026-09-02 · Median 65 2026-09-03 · Median 65 2026-09-05 · Median 65 2026-09-06 · Median 65 2026-09-09 · Median 68 2026-09-14 · Median 66.3 2026-09-15 · Median 66 2026-09-16 · Median 66 2026-09-17 · Median 66 2026-09-18 · Median 66 2026-09-19 · Median 66 2026-09-21 · Median 66 2026-09-22 · Median 66 2026-09-24 · Median 66 2026-09-25 · Median 66 2026-09-29 · Median 66 2026-09-30 · Median 66 2026-10-03 · Median 66 2026-10-04 · Median 66 2026-10-05 · Median 66 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 66

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0566
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