Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 3, 2026
Player profile

Parker Carlson

NYM · AA · P

New York Mets · Age at assessment: 23.6 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 3, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#899
Prospect Score57.3
Median53
Performance Signal-0.9
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
475359
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -0.9

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 38 Latest recorded 53
60 47 34 2026-08-14 · Median 38 2026-08-16 · Median 38 2026-08-17 · Median 38 2026-08-18 · Median 38 2026-08-19 · Median 38 2026-08-20 · Median 38 2026-08-22 · Median 38 2026-08-23 · Median 38.2 2026-08-25 · Median 38.2 2026-08-27 · Median 38 2026-08-28 · Median 38 2026-09-01 · Median 38 2026-09-02 · Median 38 2026-09-03 · Median 38 2026-09-05 · Median 38 2026-09-06 · Median 38 2026-09-09 · Median 56 2026-09-14 · Median 53.4 2026-09-15 · Median 53 2026-09-16 · Median 53 2026-09-17 · Median 53 2026-09-18 · Median 53 2026-09-19 · Median 53 2026-09-21 · Median 53 2026-09-22 · Median 53 2026-09-24 · Median 53 2026-09-25 · Median 53 2026-09-29 · Median 53 2026-09-30 · Median 53 2026-10-03 · Median 53 2026-08-14 2026-10-03

2026-10-03 · Median 53

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0353
2026-09-3053
2026-09-2953
2026-09-2553
2026-09-2453
2026-09-2253
2026-09-2153
2026-09-1953
2026-09-1853
2026-09-1753
2026-09-1653
2026-09-1553
2026-09-1453.4
2026-09-0956
2026-09-0638
2026-09-0538
2026-09-0338
2026-09-0238
2026-09-0138
2026-08-2838
2026-08-2738
2026-08-2538.2
2026-08-2338.2
2026-08-2238
2026-08-2038
2026-08-1938
2026-08-1838
2026-08-1738
2026-08-1638
2026-08-1438

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 61
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 0
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
475359
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -0.9

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 0
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence61
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection45.5
Projected range21–70
Arrival probability17%
Productive role probability2%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.