Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 4, 2026
Player profile

Paul Wilson

DET · Single-A · P

Projection updated October 4, 2026

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank. Lower confidence keeps the composite more conservative.

Rank#3,642
Score36.5
Baseline40
Signal-8.4
Trend0.0
Floor29
Baseline40
Ceiling49
Confidence45 Risk47 Model WatchStable model read
Player profile

Paul Wilson

DET · Single-A · P

Detroit Tigers · Age at assessment: 21.8 · Bats: R · Throws: L

Projection updated: October 4, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank. Lower confidence keeps the composite more conservative.

PB Rank#3,642
Prospect Score36.5
Median40
Performance Signal-8.4
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
294049
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -8.4

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 39 Latest recorded 40
44 39 34 2026-08-16 · Median 39 2026-08-17 · Median 39 2026-08-18 · Median 39 2026-08-19 · Median 39 2026-08-20 · Median 39 2026-08-22 · Median 39 2026-08-23 · Median 38.8 2026-08-25 · Median 38.8 2026-08-27 · Median 39 2026-08-28 · Median 39 2026-09-01 · Median 39 2026-09-02 · Median 39 2026-09-03 · Median 39 2026-09-05 · Median 39 2026-09-06 · Median 39 2026-09-09 · Median 40 2026-09-14 · Median 39.7 2026-09-15 · Median 40 2026-09-16 · Median 40 2026-09-17 · Median 40 2026-09-18 · Median 40 2026-09-19 · Median 40 2026-09-21 · Median 40 2026-09-22 · Median 40 2026-09-24 · Median 40 2026-09-25 · Median 40 2026-09-29 · Median 40 2026-09-30 · Median 40 2026-10-03 · Median 40 2026-10-04 · Median 40 2026-08-16 2026-10-04

2026-10-04 · Median 40

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0440
2026-10-0340
2026-09-3040
2026-09-2940
2026-09-2540
2026-09-2440
2026-09-2240
2026-09-2140
2026-09-1940
2026-09-1840
2026-09-1740
2026-09-1640
2026-09-1540
2026-09-1439.7
2026-09-0940
2026-09-0639
2026-09-0539
2026-09-0339
2026-09-0239
2026-09-0139
2026-08-2839
2026-08-2739
2026-08-2538.8
2026-08-2338.8
2026-08-2239
2026-08-2039
2026-08-1939
2026-08-1839
2026-08-1739
2026-08-1639

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 45
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 47
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
294049
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -8.4

Profile Context

RiskMedium Risk · 47
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence45
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection35.4
Projected range11–60
Arrival probability1%
Productive role probability0%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.