Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 3, 2026
Player profile

Ronny Ugarte

COL · Single-A · 1B

Colorado Rockies · Age at assessment: 21.8 · Bats: L · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 3, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#1,284
Prospect Score53.3
Median50
Performance Signal+12.4
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
435058
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +12.4

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 44 Latest recorded 50
58 49 40 2026-08-14 · Median 44 2026-08-16 · Median 44 2026-08-17 · Median 44 2026-08-18 · Median 44 2026-08-19 · Median 44 2026-08-20 · Median 54 2026-08-22 · Median 54 2026-08-23 · Median 53.7 2026-08-25 · Median 53.7 2026-08-27 · Median 54 2026-08-28 · Median 54 2026-09-01 · Median 54 2026-09-02 · Median 54 2026-09-03 · Median 54 2026-09-05 · Median 54 2026-09-06 · Median 54 2026-09-09 · Median 51 2026-09-14 · Median 50.3 2026-09-15 · Median 50 2026-09-16 · Median 50 2026-09-17 · Median 50 2026-09-18 · Median 50 2026-09-19 · Median 50 2026-09-21 · Median 50 2026-09-22 · Median 50 2026-09-24 · Median 50 2026-09-25 · Median 50 2026-09-29 · Median 50 2026-09-30 · Median 50 2026-10-03 · Median 50 2026-08-14 2026-10-03

2026-10-03 · Median 50

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0350
2026-09-3050
2026-09-2950
2026-09-2550
2026-09-2450
2026-09-2250
2026-09-2150
2026-09-1950
2026-09-1850
2026-09-1750
2026-09-1650
2026-09-1550
2026-09-1450.3
2026-09-0951
2026-09-0654
2026-09-0554
2026-09-0354
2026-09-0254
2026-09-0154
2026-08-2854
2026-08-2754
2026-08-2553.7
2026-08-2353.7
2026-08-2254
2026-08-2054
2026-08-1944
2026-08-1844
2026-08-1744
2026-08-1644
2026-08-1444

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 56
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 14
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
435058
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +12.4

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 14
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence56
TypeHitter

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection39.3
Projected range24–55
Arrival probability15%
Productive role probability3%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.