Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 3, 2026
Player profile

Ryan Dollar

NYM · AA · P

New York Mets · Age at assessment: 23.0 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 3, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#614
Prospect Score61.1
Median58
Performance Signal+7.7
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
525865
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +7.7

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 47 Latest recorded 58
63 53 43 2026-08-14 · Median 47 2026-08-16 · Median 48 2026-08-17 · Median 48 2026-08-18 · Median 48 2026-08-19 · Median 48 2026-08-20 · Median 48 2026-08-22 · Median 48 2026-08-23 · Median 47 2026-08-25 · Median 47 2026-08-27 · Median 47 2026-08-28 · Median 47 2026-09-01 · Median 50 2026-09-02 · Median 50 2026-09-03 · Median 50 2026-09-05 · Median 50 2026-09-06 · Median 50 2026-09-09 · Median 57 2026-09-14 · Median 58.5 2026-09-15 · Median 59 2026-09-16 · Median 59 2026-09-17 · Median 58 2026-09-18 · Median 58 2026-09-19 · Median 58 2026-09-21 · Median 58 2026-09-22 · Median 58 2026-09-24 · Median 58 2026-09-25 · Median 58 2026-09-29 · Median 58 2026-09-30 · Median 58 2026-10-03 · Median 58 2026-08-14 2026-10-03

2026-10-03 · Median 58

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0358
2026-09-3058
2026-09-2958
2026-09-2558
2026-09-2458
2026-09-2258
2026-09-2158
2026-09-1958
2026-09-1858
2026-09-1758
2026-09-1659
2026-09-1559
2026-09-1458.5
2026-09-0957
2026-09-0650
2026-09-0550
2026-09-0350
2026-09-0250
2026-09-0150
2026-08-2847
2026-08-2747
2026-08-2547
2026-08-2347
2026-08-2248
2026-08-2048
2026-08-1948
2026-08-1848
2026-08-1748
2026-08-1648
2026-08-1447

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 61
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 10
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
525865
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +7.7

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 10
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence61
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection49.0
Projected range24–74
Arrival probability27%
Productive role probability4%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.