Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 4, 2026
Player profile

Ryan Murphy

STL · AAA · P

Projection updated October 4, 2026

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

Rank#5,054
Score27.0
Baseline30
Signal-36.5
Trend0.0
Floor22
Baseline30
Ceiling38
Confidence61 Risk46 Model WatchStable model read
Player profile

Ryan Murphy

STL · AAA · P

St. Louis Cardinals · Age at assessment: 27.0 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 4, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#5,054
Prospect Score27.0
Median30
Performance Signal-36.5
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
223038
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -36.5

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 32 Latest recorded 30
36 30 24 2026-07-21 · Median 32 2026-07-22 · Median 32 2026-07-23 · Median 32 2026-07-24 · Median 31 2026-08-20 · Median 28 2026-08-22 · Median 28 2026-08-23 · Median 28.4 2026-08-25 · Median 28.4 2026-08-27 · Median 28 2026-08-28 · Median 28 2026-09-01 · Median 28 2026-09-02 · Median 28 2026-09-03 · Median 28 2026-09-05 · Median 28 2026-09-06 · Median 28 2026-09-09 · Median 32 2026-09-14 · Median 30 2026-09-15 · Median 30 2026-09-16 · Median 30 2026-09-17 · Median 30 2026-09-18 · Median 30 2026-09-19 · Median 30 2026-09-21 · Median 30 2026-09-22 · Median 30 2026-09-24 · Median 30 2026-09-25 · Median 30 2026-09-29 · Median 30 2026-09-30 · Median 30 2026-10-03 · Median 30 2026-10-04 · Median 30 2026-07-21 2026-10-04

2026-10-04 · Median 30

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0430
2026-10-0330
2026-09-3030
2026-09-2930
2026-09-2530
2026-09-2430
2026-09-2230
2026-09-2130
2026-09-1930
2026-09-1830
2026-09-1730
2026-09-1630
2026-09-1530
2026-09-1430
2026-09-0932
2026-09-0628
2026-09-0528
2026-09-0328
2026-09-0228
2026-09-0128
2026-08-2828
2026-08-2728
2026-08-2528.4
2026-08-2328.4
2026-08-2228
2026-08-2028
2026-07-2431
2026-07-2332
2026-07-2232
2026-07-2132

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 61
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 46
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
223038
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -36.5

Profile Context

RiskMedium Risk · 46
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence61
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection37.7
Projected range13–62
Arrival probability11%
Productive role probability2%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.