Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 4, 2026
Player profile

Ryan Watson

TOR · AA · P

Projection updated October 4, 2026

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank. This player can rank below a lower-median player when risk, confidence, current performance, or age-to-level context pull the composite down.

Rank#6,382
Score11.8
Baseline19
Signal0.0
Trend0.0
Floor20
Baseline19
Ceiling31
Confidence33 Risk84 Model WatchMonitor projection risk
Player profile

Ryan Watson

TOR · AA · P

Toronto Blue Jays · Age at assessment: 27.4 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 4, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank. This player can rank below a lower-median player when risk, confidence, current performance, or age-to-level context pull the composite down.

PB Rank#6,382
Prospect Score11.8
Median19
Performance Signal0.0
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
201931
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal 0.0

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 19 Latest recorded 19 Change +0.4
23 18.5 14 2026-08-27 · Median 18.6 2026-08-28 · Median 18.6 2026-09-01 · Median 18.3 2026-09-02 · Median 18.3 2026-09-03 · Median 18.3 2026-09-05 · Median 18.3 2026-09-06 · Median 18.3 2026-09-09 · Median 18.6 2026-09-14 · Median 18.6 2026-09-15 · Median 18.6 2026-09-16 · Median 19 2026-09-17 · Median 19 2026-09-18 · Median 19 2026-09-19 · Median 19 2026-09-21 · Median 19 2026-09-22 · Median 19 2026-09-24 · Median 19 2026-09-25 · Median 19 2026-09-29 · Median 19 2026-09-30 · Median 19 2026-10-03 · Median 19 2026-10-04 · Median 19 2026-08-27 2026-10-04

2026-10-04 · Median 19

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0419
2026-10-0319
2026-09-3019
2026-09-2919
2026-09-2519
2026-09-2419
2026-09-2219
2026-09-2119
2026-09-1919
2026-09-1819
2026-09-1719
2026-09-1619
2026-09-1518.6
2026-09-1418.6
2026-09-0918.6
2026-09-0618.3
2026-09-0518.3
2026-09-0318.3
2026-09-0218.3
2026-09-0118.3
2026-08-2818.6
2026-08-2718.6

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 33
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 84
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
201931
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal 0.0

Profile Context

RiskHigh Risk · 84
Model WatchMonitor projection risk
Confidence33
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusInsufficient current-season sample

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.