Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Saul Garcia

NYM · AAA · P · Age 23

Bats R · Throws R
Prospect Score72.3#144 Overall
Baseline71Most likely outcome
Performance66Solid current performance
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor65Lower-end outcome
Baseline71Most likely outcome
Ceiling78High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

Performance

Selected evidence
66Solid current performance
Miss ability11.0 K/9Strong strikeout signal
Dominance20.8% K-BBStrong strikeout-to-walk foundation
Contact management1.5 HR/9Home-run contact is a concern

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale

Individual scouting grades are not currently available for this player.

Model Detail
ConfidenceSolid64How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskHigh0Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection46.5
Projected Range22–71
Arrival Probability40%
Productive Role Probability6%
Player Background
OrganizationNew York Mets
LevelAAA
PositionP
BatsR
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 49 Latest recorded 71
77 61 45 2026-09-02 · Median 49 2026-09-03 · Median 49 2026-09-05 · Median 49 2026-09-06 · Median 49 2026-09-09 · Median 73 2026-09-14 · Median 72.4 2026-09-15 · Median 72 2026-09-16 · Median 72 2026-09-17 · Median 72 2026-09-18 · Median 72 2026-09-19 · Median 71 2026-09-21 · Median 71 2026-09-22 · Median 71 2026-09-24 · Median 71 2026-09-25 · Median 71 2026-09-29 · Median 71 2026-09-30 · Median 71 2026-10-03 · Median 71 2026-10-04 · Median 71 2026-10-05 · Median 71 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 71

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0571
2026-10-0471
2026-10-0371
2026-09-3071
2026-09-2971
2026-09-2571
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2026-09-2171
2026-09-1971
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2026-09-1472.4
2026-09-0973
2026-09-0649
2026-09-0549
2026-09-0349
2026-09-0249