Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 3, 2026
Player profile

Sebastian Gongora

BAL · AA · P

Baltimore Orioles · Age at assessment: 25.1 · Bats: L · Throws: L

Projection updated: October 3, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#1,264
Prospect Score53.5
Median50
Performance Signal+0.2
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
445057
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +0.2

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 50 Latest recorded 50
55 50 45 2026-08-14 · Median 50 2026-08-16 · Median 50 2026-08-17 · Median 50 2026-08-18 · Median 49 2026-08-19 · Median 49 2026-08-20 · Median 49 2026-08-22 · Median 49 2026-08-23 · Median 50.1 2026-08-25 · Median 50.1 2026-08-27 · Median 50 2026-08-28 · Median 50 2026-09-01 · Median 51 2026-09-02 · Median 51 2026-09-03 · Median 51 2026-09-05 · Median 51 2026-09-06 · Median 51 2026-09-09 · Median 51 2026-09-14 · Median 50.7 2026-09-15 · Median 51 2026-09-16 · Median 51 2026-09-17 · Median 51 2026-09-18 · Median 51 2026-09-19 · Median 51 2026-09-21 · Median 50 2026-09-22 · Median 50 2026-09-24 · Median 50 2026-09-25 · Median 50 2026-09-29 · Median 50 2026-09-30 · Median 50 2026-10-03 · Median 50 2026-08-14 2026-10-03

2026-10-03 · Median 50

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0350
2026-09-3050
2026-09-2950
2026-09-2550
2026-09-2450
2026-09-2250
2026-09-2150
2026-09-1951
2026-09-1851
2026-09-1751
2026-09-1651
2026-09-1551
2026-09-1450.7
2026-09-0951
2026-09-0651
2026-09-0551
2026-09-0351
2026-09-0251
2026-09-0151
2026-08-2850
2026-08-2750
2026-08-2550.1
2026-08-2350.1
2026-08-2249
2026-08-2049
2026-08-1949
2026-08-1849
2026-08-1750
2026-08-1650
2026-08-1450

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 61
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 10
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
445057
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +0.2

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 10
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence61
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection45.0
Projected range22–68
Arrival probability28%
Productive role probability3%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.