Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 3, 2026
Player profile

Shane Murphy

CWS · AAA · P

Chicago White Sox · Age at assessment: 25.7 · Bats: L · Throws: L

Projection updated: October 3, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#901
Prospect Score57.3
Median52
Performance Signal+9.2
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
485256
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +9.2

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 48 Latest recorded 52
57 47 37 2026-07-16 · Median 48 2026-07-21 · Median 47 2026-07-22 · Median 47 2026-07-23 · Median 47 2026-07-24 · Median 47 2026-08-20 · Median 41 2026-08-22 · Median 41 2026-08-23 · Median 41 2026-08-25 · Median 41 2026-08-27 · Median 41 2026-08-28 · Median 41 2026-09-01 · Median 42 2026-09-02 · Median 42 2026-09-03 · Median 42 2026-09-05 · Median 42 2026-09-06 · Median 42 2026-09-09 · Median 53 2026-09-14 · Median 52.1 2026-09-15 · Median 52 2026-09-16 · Median 52 2026-09-17 · Median 52 2026-09-18 · Median 52 2026-09-19 · Median 52 2026-09-21 · Median 52 2026-09-22 · Median 52 2026-09-24 · Median 52 2026-09-25 · Median 52 2026-09-29 · Median 52 2026-09-30 · Median 52 2026-10-03 · Median 52 2026-07-16 2026-10-03

2026-10-03 · Median 52

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0352
2026-09-3052
2026-09-2952
2026-09-2552
2026-09-2452
2026-09-2252
2026-09-2152
2026-09-1952
2026-09-1852
2026-09-1752
2026-09-1652
2026-09-1552
2026-09-1452.1
2026-09-0953
2026-09-0642
2026-09-0542
2026-09-0342
2026-09-0242
2026-09-0142
2026-08-2841
2026-08-2741
2026-08-2541
2026-08-2341
2026-08-2241
2026-08-2041
2026-07-2447
2026-07-2347
2026-07-2247
2026-07-2147
2026-07-1648

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 92
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 11
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
485256
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +9.2

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 11
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence92
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection41.9
Projected range19–65
Arrival probability26%
Productive role probability2%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.