Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 4, 2026
Player profile

Shohei Tomioka

ATH · AA · P

Projection updated October 4, 2026

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank. Present performance is lifting the composite above the long-term median outcome.

Rank#6,350
Score12.8
Baseline15
Signal-24.2
Trend0.0
Floor20
Baseline15
Ceiling27
Confidence59 Risk38 Model WatchStable model read
Player profile

Shohei Tomioka

ATH · AA · P

Athletics · Age at assessment: 30.6 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 4, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank. Present performance is lifting the composite above the long-term median outcome.

PB Rank#6,350
Prospect Score12.8
Median15
Performance Signal-24.2
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
201527
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -24.2

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 9 Latest recorded 15
20 12.5 5 2026-08-16 · Median 9 2026-08-17 · Median 9 2026-08-18 · Median 9 2026-08-19 · Median 9 2026-08-20 · Median 9 2026-08-22 · Median 9 2026-08-23 · Median 10.3 2026-08-25 · Median 10.3 2026-08-27 · Median 10.3 2026-08-28 · Median 10.3 2026-09-01 · Median 11.5 2026-09-02 · Median 11.5 2026-09-03 · Median 11.5 2026-09-05 · Median 11.5 2026-09-06 · Median 11.5 2026-09-09 · Median 12.5 2026-09-14 · Median 15.2 2026-09-15 · Median 15.2 2026-09-16 · Median 15 2026-09-17 · Median 15 2026-09-18 · Median 15 2026-09-19 · Median 15 2026-09-21 · Median 15 2026-09-22 · Median 15 2026-09-24 · Median 15 2026-09-25 · Median 15 2026-09-29 · Median 15 2026-09-30 · Median 15 2026-10-03 · Median 15 2026-10-04 · Median 15 2026-08-16 2026-10-04

2026-10-04 · Median 15

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0415
2026-10-0315
2026-09-3015
2026-09-2915
2026-09-2515
2026-09-2415
2026-09-2215
2026-09-2115
2026-09-1915
2026-09-1815
2026-09-1715
2026-09-1615
2026-09-1515.2
2026-09-1415.2
2026-09-0912.5
2026-09-0611.5
2026-09-0511.5
2026-09-0311.5
2026-09-0211.5
2026-09-0111.5
2026-08-2810.3
2026-08-2710.3
2026-08-2510.3
2026-08-2310.3
2026-08-229
2026-08-209
2026-08-199
2026-08-189
2026-08-179
2026-08-169

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 59
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 38
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
201527
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -24.2

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 38
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence59
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection42.3
Projected range18–67
Arrival probability3%
Productive role probability0%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.