Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 4, 2026
Player profile

Stephen Jones

MIA · AAA · P

Projection updated October 4, 2026

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank. Present performance is lifting the composite above the long-term median outcome.

Rank#5,677
Score23.2
Baseline25
Signal-14.9
Trend0.0
Floor20
Baseline25
Ceiling35
Confidence60 Risk43 Model WatchStable model read
Player profile

Stephen Jones

MIA · AAA · P

Miami Marlins · Age at assessment: 29.2 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 4, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank. Present performance is lifting the composite above the long-term median outcome.

PB Rank#5,677
Prospect Score23.2
Median25
Performance Signal-14.9
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
202535
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -14.9

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 26 Latest recorded 25
32 26 20 2026-07-21 · Median 26 2026-07-22 · Median 26 2026-07-23 · Median 26 2026-07-24 · Median 25 2026-08-20 · Median 28 2026-08-22 · Median 28 2026-08-23 · Median 27.9 2026-08-25 · Median 27.9 2026-08-27 · Median 27 2026-08-28 · Median 27 2026-09-01 · Median 27 2026-09-02 · Median 27 2026-09-03 · Median 27 2026-09-05 · Median 27 2026-09-06 · Median 27 2026-09-09 · Median 25 2026-09-14 · Median 25.2 2026-09-15 · Median 25 2026-09-16 · Median 25 2026-09-17 · Median 25 2026-09-18 · Median 25 2026-09-19 · Median 25 2026-09-21 · Median 25 2026-09-22 · Median 25 2026-09-24 · Median 24 2026-09-25 · Median 24 2026-09-29 · Median 25 2026-09-30 · Median 25 2026-10-03 · Median 25 2026-10-04 · Median 25 2026-07-21 2026-10-04

2026-10-04 · Median 25

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0425
2026-10-0325
2026-09-3025
2026-09-2925
2026-09-2524
2026-09-2424
2026-09-2225
2026-09-2125
2026-09-1925
2026-09-1825
2026-09-1725
2026-09-1625
2026-09-1525
2026-09-1425.2
2026-09-0925
2026-09-0627
2026-09-0527
2026-09-0327
2026-09-0227
2026-09-0127
2026-08-2827
2026-08-2727
2026-08-2527.9
2026-08-2327.9
2026-08-2228
2026-08-2028
2026-07-2425
2026-07-2326
2026-07-2226
2026-07-2126

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 60
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 43
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
202535
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -14.9

Profile Context

RiskMedium Risk · 43
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence60
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection41.0
Projected range16–66
Arrival probability30%
Productive role probability5%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.