Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 4, 2026
Player profile

Thatcher Hurd

NYY · Single-A · P

Projection updated October 4, 2026

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

Rank#1,643
Score50.4
Baseline54
Signal-4.3
Trend0.0
Floor48
Baseline54
Ceiling60
Confidence81 Risk38 Model WatchStable model read
Player profile

Thatcher Hurd

NYY · Single-A · P

New York Yankees · Age at assessment: 23.8 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 4, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#1,643
Prospect Score50.4
Median54
Performance Signal-4.3
Trend0.0

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range0.0
485460
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -4.3

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 40 Latest recorded 54
59 47 35 2026-08-11 · Median 40 2026-08-13 · Median 40 2026-08-14 · Median 40 2026-08-16 · Median 40 2026-08-17 · Median 40 2026-08-18 · Median 40 2026-08-19 · Median 40 2026-08-20 · Median 39.6 2026-08-27 · Median 53 2026-08-28 · Median 53 2026-09-01 · Median 53 2026-09-02 · Median 53 2026-09-03 · Median 53 2026-09-05 · Median 53 2026-09-06 · Median 53 2026-09-09 · Median 54 2026-09-14 · Median 54.2 2026-09-15 · Median 54 2026-09-16 · Median 54 2026-09-17 · Median 54 2026-09-18 · Median 54 2026-09-19 · Median 54 2026-09-21 · Median 54 2026-09-22 · Median 54 2026-09-24 · Median 54 2026-09-25 · Median 54 2026-09-29 · Median 54 2026-09-30 · Median 54 2026-10-03 · Median 54 2026-10-04 · Median 54 2026-08-11 2026-10-04

2026-10-04 · Median 54

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0454
2026-10-0354
2026-09-3054
2026-09-2954
2026-09-2554
2026-09-2454
2026-09-2254
2026-09-2154
2026-09-1954
2026-09-1854
2026-09-1754
2026-09-1654
2026-09-1554
2026-09-1454.2
2026-09-0954
2026-09-0653
2026-09-0553
2026-09-0353
2026-09-0253
2026-09-0153
2026-08-2853
2026-08-2753
2026-08-2039.6
2026-08-1940
2026-08-1840
2026-08-1740
2026-08-1640
2026-08-1440
2026-08-1340
2026-08-1140

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 81
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 38
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range0.0
485460
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal -4.3

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 38
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence81
TypePitcher

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection48.6
Projected range24–73
Arrival probability3%
Productive role probability0%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.