Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Tucker Musgrove

SD · AA · P · Age 25

Bats R · Throws R
Prospect Score61.2#602 Overall
Baseline61Most likely outcome
Performance56Solid current performance
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor54Lower-end outcome
Baseline61Most likely outcome
Ceiling67High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

Performance

Selected evidence
56Solid current performance
Miss ability17.8 K/9Strong strikeout signal
Command6.6 BB/9Command risk
Traffic prevention1.46 WHIPElevated traffic

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale
Overall40
Fastball70
Slider55
Curveball50
Control40

Source: MLB Pipeline · Updated 2026-09-01

Model Detail
ConfidenceHigh82How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskHigh24Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection53.3
Projected Range29–78
Arrival Probability24%
Productive Role Probability5%
Player Background
OrganizationSan Diego Padres
LevelAA
PositionP
BatsR
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 58 Latest recorded 61
65 59.5 54 2026-09-02 · Median 58 2026-09-03 · Median 58 2026-09-05 · Median 58 2026-09-06 · Median 58 2026-09-09 · Median 59 2026-09-14 · Median 59.5 2026-09-15 · Median 59 2026-09-16 · Median 59 2026-09-17 · Median 59 2026-09-18 · Median 59 2026-09-19 · Median 59 2026-09-21 · Median 61 2026-09-22 · Median 61 2026-09-24 · Median 61 2026-09-25 · Median 61 2026-09-29 · Median 61 2026-09-30 · Median 61 2026-10-03 · Median 61 2026-10-04 · Median 61 2026-10-05 · Median 61 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 61

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0561
2026-10-0461
2026-10-0361
2026-09-3061
2026-09-2961
2026-09-2561
2026-09-2461
2026-09-2261
2026-09-2161
2026-09-1959
2026-09-1859
2026-09-1759
2026-09-1659
2026-09-1559
2026-09-1459.5
2026-09-0959
2026-09-0658
2026-09-0558
2026-09-0358
2026-09-0258