Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 12, 2026
Prospect Baseline Profile

Welbyn Francisca

CLE · AA · SS

Prospect Baseline Rank #182

Player Assessment

Current model read

Performance is doing more work than the scouting grade in Welbyn Francisca's current evaluation. The 64 Performance Grade sits 24 points above the 40 scouting foundation, a large enough gap to change the shape of the evaluation. The age-to-level relationship adds development value to the current performance.

Prospect Score & Development

58/100

Developing composite evaluation

Baseline

74/100

Central modeled outcome; separate from Prospect Score.

Confidence

94/100

High confidence

Evidence strength, separate from model risk.

Performance context

Model-derived assessment
64/100

Solid current production

ISO
Power.241 ISOAbove-average game power
K%
Contact23.6% KNear expected range
BB%
Approach12.7% BBStrong on-base approach

Scouting Profile

20–80 scouting scale
Overall
40
Hit
50
Power
40
Run
60
Field
50
Arm
55

Grades updated 2026-10-05

Supporting Evidence and What to Watch

Current model assessment

Supporting Evidence

Prospect Baseline places the central outcome at 74, with a modeled range from 58 to 77. That broader band is a reminder that the Baseline is strong without being fully settled. The supporting evidence is comparatively mature, so future movement should require a more meaningful change in performance or scouting information.

What to Watch

A promotion or sustained success against older competition is the next meaningful checkpoint. At AA, age-to-level context is already helping the projection. Maintaining the same indicators against stronger competition would strengthen the Baseline more than simply repeating the current line in place.

Model factors and risk context
Model Risk Index0
Age to level71
Track record69
Data quality100

Risk, age-to-level, track record and data quality are separate model fields. A missing value is not zero.

Projected Outcome Range

Floor 58Baseline 74Ceiling 77

These are modeled outcome bands on the Prospect Baseline 0–100 scale, not guaranteed MLB outcomes.

Forecast

Statistical projections

No statistical forecast is published for this player. The current profile data does not include a documented rate forecast method, target population, or validation results.

Development Trajectory

Recorded Baseline assessments

Latest recorded Baseline: 74 on · Current Floor 58, Baseline 74, Ceiling 77

Recorded history Current Floor–Ceiling range

The chart connects recorded points only within the same model version and starts a new segment across gaps longer than 120 days. Routine point markers are suppressed; changes of 8 or more Baseline points are marked. The vertical whisker shows the current range and Baseline.

View recorded values
DateBaselineModel version
2026-10-1274pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-0974pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-0874pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-0774pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-0574pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-0474pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-0374pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-3074pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-2974pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-2574pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-2474pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-2274pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-2174pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-1974pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-1875pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-1775pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-1674pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-1574pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-1474pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-0975pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-0659pbm_6169a2220134229c
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2026-08-2559pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-08-2359pbm_6169a2220134229c
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2026-06-1961pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-1861pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-1761pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-1661pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-1561pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-1461pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-1361pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-1261pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-1161pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-1041pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-0941pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-0841pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
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2026-06-0442pbm_145fdb152195dbe4

Development Outlook

Upside and risk

↑ Upside

The current Ceiling of 77 is 3 points above the Baseline. This is an outcome range, not a timed forecast.

⚑ Risk Factors

Model Risk Index: 0/100. This is a model measure, not a statement of real-world risk. Model confidence is 94/100 and is measured separately. Data quality and developmental uncertainty are also distinct.

Verified league roster listing

The player appears in the season-scoped roster snapshot shown below. Prospect Baseline scores remain overall model evaluations.

Arizona Fall League · 2026

Verified roster listing: Surprise Saguaros · Snapshot date: 2026-10-09

Prospect Score: 57.6 · Baseline: 74.0

View league model rankings

More Cleveland Guardians profiles

Projection updated October 12, 2026 · Methodology

Projected Outcome Range Guide

How the Prospect Baseline outcome scale maps to player outcome tiers. The separate scouting bars use the traditional 20–80 scale.

Fringe<40
Developing40–59
Solid60–69
Above average70–79
Impact80–89
Generational90–100

Floor, Baseline, and Ceiling describe the current range of modeled outcomes. They are not guaranteed results or dates.