Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Sep 24, 2026 · 8:41 AM ET

Included in the latest imported public model. All figures reflect the saved assessment dates.

Player profile

Will Watson

NYM · AA · P Development List

New York Mets · Age at assessment: 23.9 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Tools Ahead of Results
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Assessment saved: · Stats updated:

Stuff not yet translating

The verified pitch-quality expectation is running ahead of current bat-missing results

High Confidence · 90%
PB Rank#1,140
Prospect Score55
Median55
Performance38
Trend0.0%

Why the player is here

  • Best pitch grade 55; dominance evidence sits near the 22th percentile for comparable pitchers
  • K/9 is 8.5

Context for this assessment, not a verified explanation for movement between model runs.

Tool vs observed results

Percentile scale
Stuff-36.8 percentile gap
Expected 58 Observed 22
Command-13.3 percentile gap
Expected 42 Observed 28

Verified tool expectations alongside results for comparable players. Percentiles are not scouting grades.

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 46 Latest recorded 55
59 46.5 34 2026-06-08 · Median 46 2026-06-09 · Median 46 2026-06-10 · Median 46 2026-06-11 · Median 46 2026-06-12 · Median 46 2026-06-13 · Median 46 2026-06-14 · Median 46 2026-06-15 · Median 46 2026-06-16 · Median 46 2026-06-17 · Median 46 2026-06-18 · Median 46 2026-06-19 · Median 46 2026-06-20 · Median 46 2026-06-21 · Median 46 2026-06-22 · Median 46 2026-06-23 · Median 46 2026-06-24 · Median 46 2026-06-25 · Median 46 2026-06-26 · Median 46 2026-06-28 · Median 46 2026-06-29 · Median 46 2026-06-30 · Median 46 2026-07-01 · Median 46 2026-07-03 · Median 46 2026-07-05 · Median 46 2026-07-07 · Median 46 2026-07-09 · Median 46 2026-07-11 · Median 46 2026-07-12 · Median 46 2026-07-14 · Median 46 2026-07-16 · Median 46 2026-07-21 · Median 46 2026-07-22 · Median 46 2026-07-23 · Median 46 2026-07-24 · Median 46 2026-07-25 · Median 46 2026-07-26 · Median 46 2026-07-27 · Median 46 2026-07-28 · Median 46 2026-07-29 · Median 46 2026-07-30 · Median 46 2026-07-31 · Median 46 2026-08-01 · Median 46 2026-08-03 · Median 46 2026-08-05 · Median 46 2026-08-07 · Median 46 2026-08-08 · Median 46 2026-08-09 · Median 46 2026-08-10 · Median 46 2026-08-11 · Median 46 2026-08-13 · Median 46 2026-08-14 · Median 46 2026-08-16 · Median 46 2026-08-17 · Median 46 2026-08-18 · Median 46 2026-08-19 · Median 46 2026-08-20 · Median 39 2026-08-22 · Median 39 2026-08-23 · Median 38.9 2026-08-25 · Median 38.9 2026-08-27 · Median 49 2026-08-28 · Median 49 2026-09-01 · Median 49 2026-09-02 · Median 49 2026-09-03 · Median 49 2026-09-05 · Median 49 2026-09-06 · Median 49 2026-09-09 · Median 55 2026-09-14 · Median 54.8 2026-09-15 · Median 55 2026-09-16 · Median 55 2026-09-17 · Median 55 2026-09-18 · Median 55 2026-09-19 · Median 55 2026-09-21 · Median 55 2026-09-22 · Median 55 2026-09-24 · Median 55 2026-06-08 2026-09-24

2026-09-24 · Median 55

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-09-2455
2026-09-2255
2026-09-2155
2026-09-1955
2026-09-1855
2026-09-1755
2026-09-1655
2026-09-1555
2026-09-1454.8
2026-09-0955
2026-09-0649
2026-09-0549
2026-09-0349
2026-09-0249
2026-09-0149
2026-08-2849
2026-08-2749
2026-08-2538.9
2026-08-2338.9
2026-08-2239
2026-08-2039
2026-08-1946
2026-08-1846
2026-08-1746
2026-08-1646
2026-08-1446
2026-08-1346
2026-08-1146
2026-08-1046
2026-08-0946
2026-08-0846
2026-08-0746
2026-08-0546
2026-08-0346
2026-08-0146
2026-07-3146
2026-07-3046
2026-07-2946
2026-07-2846
2026-07-2746
2026-07-2646
2026-07-2546
2026-07-2446
2026-07-2346
2026-07-2246
2026-07-2146
2026-07-1646
2026-07-1446
2026-07-1246
2026-07-1146
2026-07-0946
2026-07-0746
2026-07-0546
2026-07-0346
2026-07-0146
2026-06-3046
2026-06-2946
2026-06-2846
2026-06-2646
2026-06-2546
2026-06-2446
2026-06-2346
2026-06-2246
2026-06-2146
2026-06-2046
2026-06-1946
2026-06-1846
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2026-06-1446
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2026-06-1046
2026-06-0946
2026-06-0846

Metrics to follow

K/9 8.5

Primary bat-missing indicator

Definition

Strikeouts recorded per nine innings pitched

K-BB% 9.2%

Separates dominance from walk cost

Definition

Strikeout percentage minus walk percentage, a compact measure of pitcher dominance and control

BB/9 4.6

Shows whether control is limiting the arsenal

Definition

Walks allowed per nine innings pitched. Lower is generally better

Next checkpointRecheck K/9, K-BB%, and BB/9 after the next 20 innings

2026 season

Current season · regular season
G13
IP37.0
ERA7.05
WHIP1.68
K/98.5
BB/94.6
K-BB%9.2%

3 teams · Total · All levels · Updated

Scouting Scenario Range

Model Range0.0%
495560
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance 38

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 20
MLB / Model Watch
Confidence87
TypePitcher

Backtested Forecasts

Separate from scouting grades
2027 MiLB production42.9
Historical 80% error band18–68
MLB arrival in 3 years4%
Productive MLB role in 3 years1%

The next-season score assumes at least 20 IP. A productive MLB role means a regular playing-time season with above-average measured hitting or pitching production. This is not a WAR forecast.

Scouting Tools

Source: Verified public scouting report
Fastball icon
Fastball55Avg
Slider icon
Slider55Avg
Cutter icon
Cutter40Developmental
Changeup icon
Changeup55Avg
Command icon
Control45Fringe
Overall icon
Overall45Fringe

Tool Profile

Tool ProfileFastballSliderCutterChangeupCommand20-80 grade scaleArchetype: Balanced Arsenal

Player Stats

Recent regular season
PeriodTeamLevelWLERAGGSSVIPHRERHRBBSOWHIPK/9
Last 7 daysNo recent game logs available
Last 30 daysAll teamsAll levels017.273308.211771581.858.31
Year-by-year regular season
YearTeamLevelWLERAGGSSVIPHRERHRBBSOWHIPK/9
2026Binghamton Rumble PoniesAA068.1699028.2372826417271.888.48
2026Brooklyn CyclonesHigh-A0011.571102.13331041.2915.43
2026St. Lucie MetsSingle-A010.003306.03200240.836.00
20263 teams · TotalAll levels077.051313037.0433329519351.688.51
2025Binghamton Rumble PoniesAA223.4442018.1138729221.2010.80
2025Brooklyn CyclonesHigh-A131.701413063.2451412328771.1510.88
2025St. Lucie MetsSingle-A043.66108139.1301716321431.309.84
20253 teams · TotalAll levels392.6028231121.18839358581421.2010.53
2024St. Lucie MetsSingle-A103.382002.22111030.7510.13

Regular season only. Totals combine team and level stints. Recent windows overlap and use cached game logs. Stats refreshed: 2026-09-24T08:35:32.

Checklist appearances

  • 2026 Bowman Chrome · First Bowman · First autograph
Explore the checklist tool

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Organization reflects each player's saved assessment.