Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Sep 24, 2026 · 8:41 AM ET

Included in the latest imported public model. All figures reflect the saved assessment dates.

Player profile

Xavier Rivas

NYY · AAA · P

New York Yankees · Age at assessment: 24.2 · Bats: L · Throws: L

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Assessment saved: · Stats updated:

Pitch quality translating

Current bat-missing results are broadly aligned with the verified pitch-quality expectation

High Confidence · 99%
PB Rank#540
Prospect Score62
Median57
Performance50
Trend0.0%

Why the player is here

  • Best pitch grade 60; dominance evidence sits near the 70th percentile for comparable pitchers
  • K/9 is 11.6

Context for this assessment, not a verified explanation for movement between model runs.

Tool vs observed results

Percentile scale
Stuff+3.7 percentile gap
Expected 67 Observed 70
Command+0.9 percentile gap
Expected 33 Observed 34

Verified tool expectations alongside results for comparable players. Percentiles are not scouting grades.

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 51 Latest recorded 57
66 54 42 2026-06-04 · Median 51 2026-06-05 · Median 51 2026-06-06 · Median 50 2026-06-07 · Median 50 2026-06-08 · Median 50 2026-06-09 · Median 50 2026-06-10 · Median 50 2026-06-11 · Median 50 2026-06-12 · Median 51 2026-06-13 · Median 51 2026-06-14 · Median 51 2026-06-15 · Median 51 2026-06-16 · Median 51 2026-06-17 · Median 51 2026-06-18 · Median 55 2026-06-19 · Median 55 2026-06-20 · Median 55 2026-06-21 · Median 55 2026-06-22 · Median 55 2026-06-23 · Median 54 2026-06-24 · Median 54 2026-06-25 · Median 56 2026-06-26 · Median 56 2026-06-28 · Median 56 2026-06-29 · Median 56 2026-06-30 · Median 56 2026-07-01 · Median 56 2026-07-03 · Median 58 2026-07-05 · Median 58 2026-07-07 · Median 58 2026-07-09 · Median 58 2026-07-11 · Median 58 2026-07-12 · Median 58 2026-07-14 · Median 62 2026-07-16 · Median 62 2026-07-21 · Median 62 2026-07-22 · Median 62 2026-07-23 · Median 62 2026-07-24 · Median 61 2026-07-25 · Median 61 2026-07-26 · Median 61 2026-07-27 · Median 61 2026-07-28 · Median 61 2026-07-29 · Median 61 2026-07-30 · Median 60 2026-07-31 · Median 60 2026-08-01 · Median 60 2026-08-03 · Median 60 2026-08-05 · Median 60 2026-08-07 · Median 60 2026-08-08 · Median 60 2026-08-09 · Median 60 2026-08-10 · Median 60 2026-08-11 · Median 60 2026-08-13 · Median 48 2026-08-14 · Median 48 2026-08-16 · Median 48 2026-08-17 · Median 48 2026-08-18 · Median 48 2026-08-19 · Median 46 2026-08-20 · Median 54 2026-08-22 · Median 54 2026-08-23 · Median 54.2 2026-08-25 · Median 54.2 2026-08-27 · Median 53 2026-08-28 · Median 53 2026-09-01 · Median 53 2026-09-02 · Median 53 2026-09-03 · Median 53 2026-09-05 · Median 53 2026-09-06 · Median 53 2026-09-09 · Median 57 2026-09-14 · Median 57.4 2026-09-15 · Median 57 2026-09-16 · Median 57 2026-09-17 · Median 57 2026-09-18 · Median 57 2026-09-19 · Median 57 2026-09-21 · Median 57 2026-09-22 · Median 57 2026-09-24 · Median 57 2026-06-04 2026-09-24

2026-09-24 · Median 57

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-09-2457
2026-09-2257
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Metrics to follow

K/9 11.6

Primary bat-missing indicator

Definition

Strikeouts recorded per nine innings pitched

K-BB% 15.6%

Separates dominance from walk cost

Definition

Strikeout percentage minus walk percentage, a compact measure of pitcher dominance and control

BB/9 5.5

Shows whether control is limiting the arsenal

Definition

Walks allowed per nine innings pitched. Lower is generally better

Next checkpointRecheck K/9, K-BB%, and BB/9 after the next 20 innings

2026 season

Current season · regular season
G26
IP105.2
ERA5.28
WHIP1.35
K/911.6
BB/95.5
K-BB%15.6%

2 teams · Total · All levels · Updated

Scouting Scenario Range

Model Range0.0%
535761
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance 50

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 10
MLB / Model Watch
Confidence93
TypePitcher

Backtested Forecasts

Separate from scouting grades
2027 MiLB production44.4
Historical 80% error band22–67
MLB arrival in 3 years48%
Productive MLB role in 3 years11%

The next-season score assumes at least 20 IP. A productive MLB role means a regular playing-time season with above-average measured hitting or pitching production. This is not a WAR forecast.

Scouting Tools

Source: Verified public scouting report
Fastball icon
Fastball40Developmental
Slider icon
Slider55Avg
Changeup icon
Changeup60Above Avg
Command icon
Control40Developmental
Overall icon
Overall40Developmental

Tool Profile

Tool ProfileFastballSliderChangeupCommand20-80 grade scaleArchetype: Changeup Feel

Player Stats

Recent regular season
PeriodTeamLevelWLERAGGSSVIPHRERHRBBSOWHIPK/9
Last 7 daysAll teamsAll levels009.001103.04530332.339.00
Last 30 daysAll teamsAll levels108.4742017.0181916210161.658.47
Year-by-year regular season
YearTeamLevelWLERAGGSSVIPHRERHRBBSOWHIPK/9
2026Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRidersAAA1210.7374024.1273429424222.108.14
2026Somerset PatriotsAA643.651915081.151373314411141.1312.61
20262 teams · TotalAll levels765.2826190105.278716218651361.3511.58
2025Hudson Valley RenegadesHigh-A311.2355029.1944114440.7813.50
2025Tampa TarponsSingle-A235.801010040.1372926527471.5910.49
2025FCL YankeesFCL101.1543015.242209220.8312.64
20253 teams · TotalAll levels643.381918085.15035326501131.1711.92

Regular season only. Totals combine team and level stints. Recent windows overlap and use cached game logs. Stats refreshed: 2026-09-24T08:35:32.

More New York Yankees profiles

Organization reflects each player's saved assessment.