Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Sep 24, 2026 · 8:41 AM ET

Included in the latest imported public model. All figures reflect the saved assessment dates.

Player profile

Aron Estrada

BAL · AAA · 2B

Baltimore Orioles · Age at assessment: 21.7 · Bats: S · Throws: R

Results Ahead of Tools
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Assessment saved: · Stats updated:

Game power ahead of the tool grade

Current extra-base impact is outperforming the verified power expectation

High Confidence · 99%
PB Rank#67
Prospect Score77
Median75
Performance61
Trend0.0%

Why the player is here

  • Power 45; game-power evidence sits near the 76th percentile for comparable players
  • ISO is 0.201

Context for this assessment, not a verified explanation for movement between model runs.

Tool vs observed results

Percentile scale
Contact+11.9 percentile gap
Expected 50 Observed 62
Game Power+34.7 percentile gap
Expected 42 Observed 76

Verified tool expectations alongside results for comparable players. Percentiles are not scouting grades.

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 61 Latest recorded 75
79 67.5 56 2026-06-04 · Median 61 2026-06-05 · Median 61 2026-06-06 · Median 61 2026-06-07 · Median 61 2026-06-08 · Median 63 2026-06-09 · Median 63 2026-06-10 · Median 62 2026-06-11 · Median 63 2026-06-12 · Median 63 2026-06-13 · Median 62 2026-06-14 · Median 62 2026-06-15 · Median 61 2026-06-16 · Median 61 2026-06-17 · Median 61 2026-06-18 · Median 61 2026-06-19 · Median 60 2026-06-20 · Median 60 2026-06-21 · Median 60 2026-06-22 · Median 62 2026-06-23 · Median 62 2026-06-24 · Median 62 2026-06-25 · Median 63 2026-06-26 · Median 62 2026-06-28 · Median 65 2026-06-29 · Median 65 2026-06-30 · Median 65 2026-07-01 · Median 65 2026-07-03 · Median 66 2026-07-05 · Median 67 2026-07-07 · Median 67 2026-07-09 · Median 66 2026-07-11 · Median 65 2026-07-12 · Median 65 2026-07-14 · Median 65 2026-07-16 · Median 65 2026-07-21 · Median 64 2026-07-22 · Median 63 2026-07-23 · Median 63 2026-07-24 · Median 63 2026-07-25 · Median 64 2026-07-26 · Median 65 2026-07-27 · Median 65 2026-07-28 · Median 65 2026-07-29 · Median 66 2026-07-30 · Median 66 2026-07-31 · Median 65 2026-08-01 · Median 65 2026-08-03 · Median 65 2026-08-05 · Median 64 2026-08-07 · Median 64 2026-08-08 · Median 63 2026-08-09 · Median 63 2026-08-10 · Median 63 2026-08-11 · Median 63 2026-08-13 · Median 64 2026-08-14 · Median 64 2026-08-16 · Median 66 2026-08-17 · Median 66 2026-08-18 · Median 66 2026-08-19 · Median 66 2026-08-20 · Median 66 2026-08-22 · Median 66 2026-08-23 · Median 65.1 2026-08-25 · Median 65.1 2026-08-27 · Median 65 2026-08-28 · Median 65 2026-09-01 · Median 66 2026-09-02 · Median 66 2026-09-03 · Median 65 2026-09-05 · Median 65 2026-09-06 · Median 65 2026-09-09 · Median 66 2026-09-14 · Median 64.5 2026-09-15 · Median 74 2026-09-16 · Median 74 2026-09-17 · Median 74 2026-09-18 · Median 74 2026-09-19 · Median 74 2026-09-21 · Median 75 2026-09-22 · Median 75 2026-09-24 · Median 75 2026-06-04 2026-09-24

2026-09-24 · Median 75

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-09-2475
2026-09-2275
2026-09-2175
2026-09-1974
2026-09-1874
2026-09-1774
2026-09-1674
2026-09-1574
2026-09-1464.5
2026-09-0966
2026-09-0665
2026-09-0565
2026-09-0365
2026-09-0266
2026-09-0166
2026-08-2865
2026-08-2765
2026-08-2565.1
2026-08-2365.1
2026-08-2266
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2026-08-1966
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2026-08-1163
2026-08-1063
2026-08-0963
2026-08-0863
2026-08-0764
2026-08-0564
2026-08-0365
2026-08-0165
2026-07-3165
2026-07-3066
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2026-07-1665
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2026-07-0366
2026-07-0165
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2026-06-2662
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2026-06-1062
2026-06-0963
2026-06-0863
2026-06-0761
2026-06-0661
2026-06-0561
2026-06-0461

Metrics to follow

ISO 0.201

Separates extra-base impact from batting average

Definition

Isolated power, calculated as slugging percentage minus batting average

SLG 0.482

Tracks total bases per at-bat

Definition

Slugging percentage, weighting extra-base hits more heavily

K% 17.9%

Shows the swing-and-miss cost of accessing power

Definition

Percentage of plate appearances ending in a strikeout. Lower is generally better for hitters

Next checkpointRecheck ISO, SLG, and K% after the next 75 plate appearances

2026 season

Current season · regular season
G128
PA530
AVG.281
OBP.325
SLG.482
OPS.807
HR25
SB8
BB%6.2%
K%17.9%

2 teams · Total · All levels · Updated

Scouting Scenario Range

Model Range0.0%
707580
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance 61

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 0
MLB / Model Watch78 signal Top 100 Watch
Confidence95
TypePosition Player

Backtested Forecasts

Separate from scouting grades
2027 MiLB production44.4
Historical 80% error band27–62
MLB arrival in 3 years91%
Productive MLB role in 3 years40%

The next-season score assumes at least 100 PA. A productive MLB role means a regular playing-time season with above-average measured hitting or pitching production. This is not a WAR forecast.

Scouting Tools

Source: Verified public scouting report
Hit icon
Hit50Avg
Power icon
Power45Fringe
Speed icon
Speed55Avg
Defense icon
Defense50Avg
Arm icon
Arm50Avg
Overall icon
Overall45Fringe

Tool Profile

Tool ProfileHitPowerSpeedDefenseArm20-80 grade scaleArchetype: Balanced Position Player

Player Stats

Recent regular season
PeriodTeamLevelGPAABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
Last 7 daysAll teamsAll levels31413240014111.308.357.538.896
Last 30 daysAll teamsAll levels2083719190031012181.268.373.394.768
Year-by-year regular season
YearTeamLevelGPAABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2026Norfolk TidesAAA52220270015211.350.409.500.909
2026Chesapeake BaysoxAA12350846870130211247631947.278.321.481.802
20262 teams · TotalAll levels12853048872137211258133958.281.325.482.807
2025Chesapeake BaysoxAA271101001130315139174.300.355.500.855
2025Aberdeen IronBirdsHigh-A813332894182137540355830.284.369.429.798
20252 teams · TotalAll levels108443389521121681053447534.288.366.447.813
2024Aberdeen IronBirdsHigh-A269885821121911138.247.337.341.678
2024Delmarva ShorebirdsSingle-A9138834853103183843296531.296.361.434.795
20242 teams · TotalAll levels11748643361124195952407839.286.356.416.772
2023FCL OriolesFCL2381631613321615115.206.383.365.748
2022DSL BAL BlackDSL45174136335012333129234.368.483.5661.049

Regular season only. Totals combine team and level stints. Recent windows overlap and use cached game logs. Stats refreshed: 2026-09-24T08:35:32.

Checklist appearances

  • 2025 Bowman · First Bowman · First autograph
Explore the checklist tool

More Baltimore Orioles profiles

Organization reflects each player's saved assessment.