Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 4, 2026
Player profile

Ethan Frey

HOU · High-A · OF

Projection updated October 4, 2026

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

Rank#447
Score63.7
Baseline60
Signal+5.9
Trend-0.3
Floor55
Baseline60
Ceiling65
Confidence89 Risk0 Model WatchStable model read
Player profile

Ethan Frey

HOU · High-A · OF

Houston Astros · Age at assessment: 22.6 · Bats: R · Throws: R

Projection updated: October 4, 2026

Assessment notes

Rank is ordered by Prospect Score, the model's 1-100 composite score. Median outcome is only one input; performance, track record, age-to-level context, high outcome, confidence, and risk also affect rank.

PB Rank#447
Prospect Score63.7
Median60
Performance Signal+5.9
Trend-0.3

Projection components

Prospect Baseline model
Model Range-0.3
556065
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +5.9

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 63 Latest recorded 60
68 61.5 55 2026-08-11 · Median 63 2026-08-13 · Median 63 2026-08-14 · Median 63 2026-08-16 · Median 63 2026-08-17 · Median 63 2026-08-18 · Median 63 2026-08-19 · Median 63 2026-08-20 · Median 63.2 2026-08-27 · Median 59 2026-08-28 · Median 59 2026-09-01 · Median 59 2026-09-02 · Median 59 2026-09-03 · Median 59 2026-09-05 · Median 59 2026-09-06 · Median 59 2026-09-09 · Median 59 2026-09-14 · Median 59.3 2026-09-15 · Median 59 2026-09-16 · Median 59 2026-09-17 · Median 59 2026-09-18 · Median 59 2026-09-19 · Median 59 2026-09-21 · Median 59 2026-09-22 · Median 59 2026-09-24 · Median 60 2026-09-25 · Median 60 2026-09-29 · Median 60 2026-09-30 · Median 60 2026-10-03 · Median 60 2026-10-04 · Median 60 2026-08-11 2026-10-04

2026-10-04 · Median 60

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0460
2026-10-0360
2026-09-3060
2026-09-2960
2026-09-2560
2026-09-2460
2026-09-2259
2026-09-2159
2026-09-1959
2026-09-1859
2026-09-1759
2026-09-1659
2026-09-1559
2026-09-1459.3
2026-09-0959
2026-09-0659
2026-09-0559
2026-09-0359
2026-09-0259
2026-09-0159
2026-08-2859
2026-08-2759
2026-08-2063.2
2026-08-1963
2026-08-1863
2026-08-1763
2026-08-1663
2026-08-1463
2026-08-1363
2026-08-1163

Metrics to follow

Projection trajectory Stable
Definition

Direction of change in Prospect Baseline's derived projection.

Model confidence 89
Definition

Prospect Baseline confidence in the current projection.

Projection risk 0
Definition

Prospect Baseline uncertainty and downside-risk index.

Model Range

Model Range-0.3
556065
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance Signal +5.9

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 0
Model WatchStable model read
Confidence89
TypeHitter

Forecasts

Modeled outcomes, not guarantees
StatusAvailable
2027 projection40.5
Projected range25–56
Arrival probability22%
Productive role probability3%

Forecasts summarize Prospect Baseline model uncertainty. They are directional assessments, not guarantees of future outcomes.

Scouting Tools

Prospect Baseline model tool estimates are not available for this profile.