Prospect Baseline Profile

Felnin Celesten

SEA · AA · SS

Prospect Baseline Rank #32

Player Assessment

Current model read

The range itself is one of the most important parts of Felnin Celesten's profile. The current evidence supports a above-average projection without one extreme input carrying the entire case.

Prospect Score & Development

67/100

Solid composite evaluation

Baseline

75/100

Central modeled outcome; separate from Prospect Score.

Confidence

93/100

High confidence

Evidence strength, separate from model risk.

Performance context

Model-derived assessment

57/100

Solid current production

OPS

Offensive impact.821 OPSBalanced offensive output

Contact24.1% KNear expected range

OBP

On-base foundation.363 OBPStrong on-base foundation

Scouting Profile

20–80 scouting scale

Overall

Hit

Power

Run

Field

Arm

Grades updated 2026-09-29

Supporting Evidence and What to Watch

Current model assessment

Supporting Evidence

The current Baseline is 75; the model's plausible outcome window runs from 51 on the low end to 78 on the high end. The range is doing almost as much work as the Baseline itself; several materially different outcomes remain plausible. The supporting evidence is comparatively mature, so future movement should require a more meaningful change in performance or scouting information.

What to Watch

The next useful evidence is whatever most directly narrows the outcome range. For a profile this uncertain, stable performance over a larger sample and better scouting confirmation matter more than isolated peaks. As those inputs accumulate, the Floor and Ceiling should move toward each other if the player is becoming easier to project.

Model factors and risk context

Model Risk Index0

Age to level65

Track record62

Data quality100

Risk, age-to-level, track record and data quality are separate model fields. A missing value is not zero.

Projected Outcome Range

Floor 51Baseline 75Ceiling 78

These are modeled outcome bands on the Prospect Baseline 0–100 scale, not guaranteed MLB outcomes.

Forecast

Statistical projections

No statistical forecast is published for this player. The current profile data does not include a documented rate forecast method, target population, or validation results.

Development Trajectory

Recorded Baseline assessments

Latest recorded Baseline: 75 on 2026-10-12 · Current Floor 51, Baseline 75, Ceiling 78

Recorded history Current Floor–Ceiling range

The chart connects recorded points only within the same model version and starts a new segment across gaps longer than 120 days. Routine point markers are suppressed; changes of 8 or more Baseline points are marked. The vertical whisker shows the current range and Baseline.

View recorded values

Date	Baseline	Model version
2026-10-12	75	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-09	75	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-08	75	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-07	74	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-05	74	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-04	74	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-03	74	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-30	74	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-29	72	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-25	72	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-24	72	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-22	72	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-21	72	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-19	72	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-18	72	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-17	72	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-16	72	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-15	72	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-14	72	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-09	72	pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-06	70	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-09-05	70	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-09-03	70	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-09-02	70	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-09-01	70	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-28	70	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-27	70	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-25	70	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-08-23	70	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-22	70	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-20	70	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-19	70	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-18	70	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-17	71	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-16	71	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-14	71	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-13	71	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-11	71	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-10	71	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-09	71	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-08	71	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-07	70	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-05	70	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-03	71	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-01	71	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-31	72	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-30	72	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-29	72	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-28	71	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-27	71	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-26	71	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-25	71	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-24	71	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-23	65	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-22	64	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-21	69	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-16	68	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-14	68	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-12	68	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-11	68	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-09	68	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-07	68	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-05	68	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-03	68	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-01	68	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-30	68	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-29	68	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-28	68	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-26	68	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-25	68	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-24	64	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-23	63	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-22	63	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-21	62	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-20	61	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-19	61	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-18	62	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-17	63	pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-16	64	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-15	64	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-14	63	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-13	63	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-12	62	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-11	63	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-10	63	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-09	64	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-08	64	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-07	64	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-06	65	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-05	66	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-04	66	pbm_145fdb152195dbe4

Development Outlook

Upside and risk

↑ Upside

The current Ceiling of 78 is 3 points above the Baseline. This is an outcome range, not a timed forecast.

⚑ Risk Factors

Model Risk Index: 0/100. This is a model measure, not a statement of real-world risk. Model confidence is 93/100 and is measured separately. Data quality and developmental uncertainty are also distinct.