Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Sep 24, 2026 · 8:41 AM ET

Included in the latest imported public model. All figures reflect the saved assessment dates.

Player profile

Joseph Dzierwa

BAL · AA · P

Baltimore Orioles · Age at assessment: 22.4 · Bats: R · Throws: L

Results Ahead of Tools
Compare
Assessment saved: · Stats updated:

Command results ahead of the tool grade

Current strike throwing is outperforming the verified command expectation

High Confidence · 99%
PB Rank#19
Prospect Score83
Median79
Performance76
Trend0.0%

Why the player is here

  • Command 55; command evidence sits near the 97th percentile for comparable pitchers
  • BB/9 is 2.1

What could change the read

  • A 10.2 K/9 shows the stuff is still missing bats

Context for this assessment, not a verified explanation for movement between model runs.

Tool vs observed results

Percentile scale
Stuff+8.1 percentile gap
Expected 67 Observed 75
Command+38.8 percentile gap
Expected 58 Observed 97

Verified tool expectations alongside results for comparable players. Percentiles are not scouting grades.

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 76 Latest recorded 79
86 79 72 2026-06-04 · Median 76 2026-06-05 · Median 76 2026-06-06 · Median 76 2026-06-07 · Median 76 2026-06-08 · Median 76 2026-06-09 · Median 76 2026-06-10 · Median 77 2026-06-11 · Median 77 2026-06-12 · Median 77 2026-06-13 · Median 77 2026-06-14 · Median 77 2026-06-15 · Median 77 2026-06-16 · Median 76 2026-06-17 · Median 77 2026-06-18 · Median 77 2026-06-19 · Median 77 2026-06-20 · Median 77 2026-06-21 · Median 81 2026-06-22 · Median 81 2026-06-23 · Median 81 2026-06-24 · Median 81 2026-06-25 · Median 81 2026-06-26 · Median 81 2026-06-28 · Median 79 2026-06-29 · Median 79 2026-06-30 · Median 79 2026-07-01 · Median 79 2026-07-03 · Median 79 2026-07-05 · Median 79 2026-07-07 · Median 79 2026-07-09 · Median 82 2026-07-11 · Median 82 2026-07-12 · Median 82 2026-07-14 · Median 82 2026-07-16 · Median 82 2026-07-21 · Median 78 2026-07-22 · Median 78 2026-07-23 · Median 78 2026-07-24 · Median 78 2026-07-25 · Median 77 2026-07-26 · Median 77 2026-07-27 · Median 77 2026-07-28 · Median 77 2026-07-29 · Median 77 2026-07-30 · Median 77 2026-07-31 · Median 77 2026-08-01 · Median 78 2026-08-03 · Median 78 2026-08-05 · Median 78 2026-08-07 · Median 80 2026-08-08 · Median 80 2026-08-09 · Median 80 2026-08-10 · Median 80 2026-08-11 · Median 80 2026-08-13 · Median 80 2026-08-14 · Median 80 2026-08-16 · Median 80 2026-08-17 · Median 80 2026-08-18 · Median 80 2026-08-19 · Median 79 2026-08-20 · Median 79 2026-08-22 · Median 79 2026-08-23 · Median 78.7 2026-08-25 · Median 78.7 2026-08-27 · Median 78 2026-08-28 · Median 77 2026-09-01 · Median 77 2026-09-02 · Median 77 2026-09-03 · Median 77 2026-09-05 · Median 77 2026-09-06 · Median 77 2026-09-09 · Median 79 2026-09-14 · Median 78.5 2026-09-15 · Median 79 2026-09-16 · Median 79 2026-09-17 · Median 79 2026-09-18 · Median 79 2026-09-19 · Median 79 2026-09-21 · Median 79 2026-09-22 · Median 79 2026-09-24 · Median 79 2026-06-04 2026-09-24

2026-09-24 · Median 79

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-09-2479
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Metrics to follow

BB/9 2.1

Primary strike-throwing checkpoint

Definition

Walks allowed per nine innings pitched. Lower is generally better

WHIP 0.90

Tracks total traffic allowed

Definition

Walks and hits allowed per inning pitched. Lower is generally better

K-BB% 23.2%

Balances dominance against walks

Definition

Strikeout percentage minus walk percentage, a compact measure of pitcher dominance and control

Next checkpointRecheck BB/9, WHIP, and K-BB% after the next 20 innings

2026 season

Current season · regular season
G26
IP131.0
ERA2.27
WHIP0.90
K/910.2
BB/92.1
K-BB%23.2%

2 teams · Total · All levels · Updated

Scouting Scenario Range

Model Range0.0%
757983
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance 76

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 0
MLB / Model WatchMLB #88 MLB Top 100
Confidence92
TypePitcher

Backtested Forecasts

Separate from scouting grades
2027 MiLB production59.9
Historical 80% error band37–83
MLB arrival in 3 years72%
Productive MLB role in 3 years20%

The next-season score assumes at least 20 IP. A productive MLB role means a regular playing-time season with above-average measured hitting or pitching production. This is not a WAR forecast.

Scouting Tools

Source: Verified public scouting report
Fastball icon
Fastball55Avg
Slider icon
Slider40Developmental
Cutter icon
Cutter40Developmental
Changeup icon
Changeup60Above Avg
Command icon
Control55Avg
Overall icon
Overall55Avg

Tool Profile

Tool ProfileFastballSliderCutterChangeupCommand20-80 grade scaleArchetype: Changeup Feel

Player Stats

Recent regular season
PeriodTeamLevelWLERAGGSSVIPHRERHRBBSOWHIPK/9
Last 7 daysNo recent game logs available
Last 30 daysAll teamsAll levels104.5033014.0177722141.369.00
Year-by-year regular season
YearTeamLevelWLERAGGSSVIPHRERHRBBSOWHIPK/9
2026Chesapeake BaysoxAA412.291816090.1652623620990.949.86
2026Frederick KeysHigh-A512.2188040.2231110210500.8111.07
20262 teams · TotalAll levels922.2726240131.08837338301490.9010.24

Regular season only. Totals combine team and level stints. Recent windows overlap and use cached game logs. Stats refreshed: 2026-09-24T08:35:32.

Checklist appearances

  • 2025 Bowman Draft · First Bowman · First autograph
Explore the checklist tool

More Baltimore Orioles profiles

Organization reflects each player's saved assessment.