Justin Lamkin
Player Assessment
Current model readJustin Lamkin's current production is forcing the profile above its original scouting foundation. The 75 Performance Grade sits 30 points above the 45 scouting foundation, a large enough gap to change the shape of the evaluation.
Prospect Score & Development
Solid composite evaluation
Baseline
Central modeled outcome; separate from Prospect Score.
Confidence
High confidence
Evidence strength, separate from model risk.
Performance context
Model-derived assessmentStrong current production
Scouting Profile
20–80 scouting scaleGrades updated 2026-09-29
Supporting Evidence and What to Watch
Current model assessmentSupporting Evidence
The current Baseline is 78; the model's plausible outcome window runs from 69 on the low end to 81 on the high end. The spread leaves room for development without making uncertainty the defining feature of the profile. The supporting evidence is comparatively mature, so future movement should require a more meaningful change in performance or scouting information.
What to Watch
The key question is whether the production forces the scouting view upward rather than drifting back toward it. Repeating the same performance against stronger competition or over a larger sample would strengthen the Floor and make the breakout harder to dismiss. That confirmation matters more now than simply adding another short stretch of strong surface numbers.
Model factors and risk context
Risk, age-to-level, track record and data quality are separate model fields. A missing value is not zero.
Projected Outcome Range
These are modeled outcome bands on the Prospect Baseline 0–100 scale, not guaranteed MLB outcomes.
Forecast
Statistical projectionsNo statistical forecast is published for this player. The current profile data does not include a documented rate forecast method, target population, or validation results.
Development Trajectory
Recorded Baseline assessmentsLatest recorded Baseline: 78 on · Current Floor 69, Baseline 78, Ceiling 81
The chart connects recorded points only within the same model version and starts a new segment across gaps longer than 120 days. Routine point markers are suppressed; changes of 8 or more Baseline points are marked. The vertical whisker shows the current range and Baseline.
View recorded values
| Date | Baseline | Model version |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | 78 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-10-09 | 78 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-10-08 | 78 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-10-07 | 79 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-10-05 | 79 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-10-04 | 79 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-10-03 | 79 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-30 | 79 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-29 | 76 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-25 | 76 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-24 | 76 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-22 | 76 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-21 | 76 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-19 | 76 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-18 | 76 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-17 | 76 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-16 | 76 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-15 | 76 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-14 | 77 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-09 | 76 | pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55 |
| 2026-09-06 | 66 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-09-05 | 66 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-09-03 | 66 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-09-02 | 66 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-09-01 | 66 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-28 | 66 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
| 2026-08-27 | 66 | pbm_6169a2220134229c |
Development Outlook
Upside and risk↑ Upside
The current Ceiling of 81 is 3 points above the Baseline. This is an outcome range, not a timed forecast.
⚑ Risk Factors
Model Risk Index: 0/100. This is a model measure, not a statement of real-world risk. Model confidence is 89/100 and is measured separately. Data quality and developmental uncertainty are also distinct.
Verified league roster listing
The player appears in the season-scoped roster snapshot shown below. Prospect Baseline scores remain overall model evaluations.
Arizona Fall League · 2026
Verified roster listing: Surprise Saguaros · Snapshot date: 2026-10-09
Prospect Score: 62.9 · Baseline: 78.0