Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 5, 2026
Player Profile

Marco Vargas

NYM · AA · SS · Age 21

Bats L · Throws R
Prospect Score61.5#581 Overall
Baseline58Most likely outcome
Performance51Developing performance profile
Trend0.0Stable

Projected Outcome

Prospect Baseline model range
Floor51Lower-end outcome
Baseline58Most likely outcome
Ceiling65High-end outcome

Why Prospect Baseline Sees Him This Way

Prospect Baseline surfaced this player because of a balanced combination of projection, performance, and developmental context. Continued progress would reinforce the current baseline and ceiling.

Performance

Selected evidence
51Developing performance profile
Power.124 ISONear expected range
Contact28.8% KContact risk
Approach12.6% BBStrong on-base approach

Scouting Profile

20–80 scale

Individual scouting grades are not currently available for this player.

Model Detail
ConfidenceSolid64How much reliable information supports the evaluation.
RiskHigh0Uncertainty surrounding the projected outcome.
Age-to-LevelUnavailableN/AHow advanced the player is relative to the level.
Track RecordUnavailableN/AStability of the model record over time.
Data QualityUnavailableN/ACompleteness and reliability of available inputs.
Forecasts
StatusAvailable
2027 Projection34.5
Projected Range17–52
Arrival Probability35%
Productive Role Probability3%
Player Background
OrganizationNew York Mets
LevelAA
PositionSS
BatsL
ThrowsR
Development History

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 59 Latest recorded 58
64 59 54 2026-09-02 · Median 59 2026-09-03 · Median 59 2026-09-05 · Median 59 2026-09-06 · Median 59 2026-09-09 · Median 58 2026-09-14 · Median 59.1 2026-09-15 · Median 59 2026-09-16 · Median 59 2026-09-17 · Median 59 2026-09-18 · Median 59 2026-09-19 · Median 59 2026-09-21 · Median 58 2026-09-22 · Median 58 2026-09-24 · Median 58 2026-09-25 · Median 58 2026-09-29 · Median 58 2026-09-30 · Median 58 2026-10-03 · Median 58 2026-10-04 · Median 58 2026-10-05 · Median 58 2026-09-02 2026-10-05

2026-10-05 · Median 58

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-10-0558
2026-10-0458
2026-10-0358
2026-09-3058
2026-09-2958
2026-09-2558
2026-09-2458
2026-09-2258
2026-09-2158
2026-09-1959
2026-09-1859
2026-09-1759
2026-09-1659
2026-09-1559
2026-09-1459.1
2026-09-0958
2026-09-0659
2026-09-0559
2026-09-0359
2026-09-0259