Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 12, 2026
Prospect Baseline Profile

Pierce George

CWS · AAA · P

Prospect Baseline Rank #193

Player Assessment

Current model read

Pierce George's current production is forcing the profile above its original scouting foundation. The 66 Performance Grade sits 26 points above the 40 scouting foundation, a large enough gap to change the shape of the evaluation. Fastball (70) is the clearest carrying tool in the current scouting mix.

Prospect Score & Development

57/100

Developing composite evaluation

Baseline

72/100

Central modeled outcome; separate from Prospect Score.

Confidence

94/100

High confidence

Evidence strength, separate from model risk.

Performance context

Model-derived assessment
66/100

Solid current production

K/9
Miss ability11.2 K/9Strong strikeout signal
BB/9
Command4.0 BB/9Near expected range
WHIP
Traffic prevention1.11 WHIPStrong traffic prevention

Scouting Profile

20–80 scouting scale
Overall
40
Fastball
70
Curveball
55
Control
45

Grades updated 2026-10-05

Supporting Evidence and What to Watch

Current model assessment

Supporting Evidence

Prospect Baseline places the central outcome at 72, with a modeled range from 60 to 75. The spread leaves room for development without making uncertainty the defining feature of the profile. The supporting evidence is comparatively mature, so future movement should require a more meaningful change in performance or scouting information.

What to Watch

The key question is whether the production forces the scouting view upward rather than drifting back toward it. Repeating the same performance against stronger competition or over a larger sample would strengthen the Floor and make the breakout harder to dismiss. That confirmation matters more now than simply adding another short stretch of strong surface numbers.

Model factors and risk context
Model Risk Index0
Age to level64
Track record71
Data quality100

Risk, age-to-level, track record and data quality are separate model fields. A missing value is not zero.

Projected Outcome Range

Floor 60Baseline 72Ceiling 75

These are modeled outcome bands on the Prospect Baseline 0–100 scale, not guaranteed MLB outcomes.

Forecast

Statistical projections

No statistical forecast is published for this player. The current profile data does not include a documented rate forecast method, target population, or validation results.

Development Trajectory

Recorded Baseline assessments

Latest recorded Baseline: 72 on · Current Floor 60, Baseline 72, Ceiling 75

Recorded history Current Floor–Ceiling range

The chart connects recorded points only within the same model version and starts a new segment across gaps longer than 120 days. Routine point markers are suppressed; changes of 8 or more Baseline points are marked. The vertical whisker shows the current range and Baseline.

View recorded values
DateBaselineModel version
2026-10-1272pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-0972pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-0872pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-0770pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-0570pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-0470pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-0370pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-3070pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-2970pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-2570pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-2470pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-2270pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-2170pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-1970pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-1862pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-1762pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-1662pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-1562pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-1462pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-0964pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-0656pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-09-0556pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-09-0355pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-09-0255pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-09-0154pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-2853pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-2753pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-2549pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-08-2349pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-2248pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-2048pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-1948pbm_6169a2220134229c
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2026-07-3148pbm_6169a2220134229c
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2026-07-1449pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-1249pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-1149pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-0952pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-0752pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-0552pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-0354pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-0155pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-3055pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-2955pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-2856pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-2658pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-2558pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-2447pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-2355pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-2255pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-2155pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-2055pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-1955pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-1855pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-1754pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-1654pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-1554pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-1454pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-1351pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-1251pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-1151pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-1051pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-0952pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-0852pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-0752pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-0652pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-0549pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-0449pbm_145fdb152195dbe4

Development Outlook

Upside and risk

↑ Upside

The current Ceiling of 75 is 3 points above the Baseline. This is an outcome range, not a timed forecast.

⚑ Risk Factors

Model Risk Index: 0/100. This is a model measure, not a statement of real-world risk. Model confidence is 94/100 and is measured separately. Data quality and developmental uncertainty are also distinct.

Verified league roster listing

The player appears in the season-scoped roster snapshot shown below. Prospect Baseline scores remain overall model evaluations.

Arizona Fall League · 2026

Verified roster listing: Glendale Desert Dogs · Snapshot date: 2026-10-09

Prospect Score: 57.2 · Baseline: 72.0

View league model rankings

Projection updated October 12, 2026 · Methodology

Projected Outcome Range Guide

How the Prospect Baseline outcome scale maps to player outcome tiers. The separate scouting bars use the traditional 20–80 scale.

Fringe<40
Developing40–59
Solid60–69
Above average70–79
Impact80–89
Generational90–100

Floor, Baseline, and Ceiling describe the current range of modeled outcomes. They are not guaranteed results or dates.