Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Sep 24, 2026 · 8:41 AM ET

Included in the latest imported public model. All figures reflect the saved assessment dates.

Player profile

Rafe Schlesinger

CLE · AA · P

Cleveland Guardians · Age at assessment: 23.7 · Bats: L · Throws: L

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Assessment saved: · Stats updated:

Pitch quality translating

Current bat-missing results are broadly aligned with the verified pitch-quality expectation

High Confidence · 99%
PB Rank#511
Prospect Score63
Median57
Performance51
Trend0.0%

Why the player is here

  • Best pitch grade 50; dominance evidence sits near the 54th percentile for comparable pitchers
  • K/9 is 10.0

Context for this assessment, not a verified explanation for movement between model runs.

Tool vs observed results

Percentile scale
Stuff+4.1 percentile gap
Expected 50 Observed 54
Command-3.4 percentile gap
Expected 50 Observed 47

Verified tool expectations alongside results for comparable players. Percentiles are not scouting grades.

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 54 Latest recorded 57
61 50.5 40 2026-06-04 · Median 54 2026-06-05 · Median 54 2026-06-06 · Median 52 2026-06-07 · Median 51 2026-06-08 · Median 51 2026-06-09 · Median 51 2026-06-10 · Median 51 2026-06-11 · Median 51 2026-06-12 · Median 51 2026-06-13 · Median 44 2026-06-14 · Median 44 2026-06-15 · Median 44 2026-06-16 · Median 44 2026-06-17 · Median 45 2026-06-18 · Median 45 2026-06-19 · Median 44 2026-06-20 · Median 44 2026-06-21 · Median 44 2026-06-22 · Median 44 2026-06-23 · Median 44 2026-06-24 · Median 44 2026-06-25 · Median 51 2026-06-26 · Median 51 2026-06-28 · Median 50 2026-06-29 · Median 50 2026-06-30 · Median 50 2026-07-01 · Median 49 2026-07-03 · Median 49 2026-07-05 · Median 49 2026-07-07 · Median 50 2026-07-09 · Median 50 2026-07-11 · Median 50 2026-07-12 · Median 50 2026-07-14 · Median 50 2026-07-16 · Median 50 2026-07-21 · Median 50 2026-07-22 · Median 50 2026-07-23 · Median 50 2026-07-24 · Median 51 2026-07-25 · Median 48 2026-07-26 · Median 48 2026-07-27 · Median 48 2026-07-28 · Median 48 2026-07-29 · Median 48 2026-07-30 · Median 48 2026-07-31 · Median 47 2026-08-01 · Median 47 2026-08-03 · Median 47 2026-08-05 · Median 47 2026-08-07 · Median 47 2026-08-08 · Median 47 2026-08-09 · Median 47 2026-08-10 · Median 47 2026-08-11 · Median 48 2026-08-13 · Median 48 2026-08-14 · Median 48 2026-08-16 · Median 48 2026-08-17 · Median 48 2026-08-18 · Median 45 2026-08-19 · Median 45 2026-08-20 · Median 45 2026-08-22 · Median 45 2026-08-23 · Median 44.8 2026-08-25 · Median 44.8 2026-08-27 · Median 55 2026-08-28 · Median 55 2026-09-01 · Median 56 2026-09-02 · Median 56 2026-09-03 · Median 56 2026-09-05 · Median 56 2026-09-06 · Median 56 2026-09-09 · Median 57 2026-09-14 · Median 56.8 2026-09-15 · Median 57 2026-09-16 · Median 57 2026-09-17 · Median 57 2026-09-18 · Median 57 2026-09-19 · Median 57 2026-09-21 · Median 57 2026-09-22 · Median 57 2026-09-24 · Median 57 2026-06-04 2026-09-24

2026-09-24 · Median 57

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-09-2457
2026-09-2257
2026-09-2157
2026-09-1957
2026-09-1857
2026-09-1757
2026-09-1657
2026-09-1557
2026-09-1456.8
2026-09-0957
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2026-09-0556
2026-09-0356
2026-09-0256
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2026-08-2855
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2026-08-2544.8
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2026-06-0554
2026-06-0454

Metrics to follow

K/9 10.0

Primary bat-missing indicator

Definition

Strikeouts recorded per nine innings pitched

K-BB% 14.9%

Separates dominance from walk cost

Definition

Strikeout percentage minus walk percentage, a compact measure of pitcher dominance and control

BB/9 4.0

Shows whether control is limiting the arsenal

Definition

Walks allowed per nine innings pitched. Lower is generally better

Next checkpointRecheck K/9, K-BB%, and BB/9 after the next 20 innings

2026 season

Current season · regular season
G27
IP117.1
ERA4.14
WHIP1.51
K/910.0
BB/94.0
K-BB%14.9%

2 teams · Total · All levels · Updated

Scouting Scenario Range

Model Range0.0%
535761
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance 51

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 0
MLB / Model Watch
Confidence91
TypePitcher

Backtested Forecasts

Separate from scouting grades
2027 MiLB production45.7
Historical 80% error band23–68
MLB arrival in 3 years39%
Productive MLB role in 3 years5%

The next-season score assumes at least 20 IP. A productive MLB role means a regular playing-time season with above-average measured hitting or pitching production. This is not a WAR forecast.

Scouting Tools

Source: Verified public scouting report
Fastball icon
Fastball50Avg
Slider icon
Slider50Avg
Changeup icon
Changeup50Avg
Command icon
Control50Avg
Overall icon
Overall40Developmental

Tool Profile

Tool ProfileFastballSliderChangeupCommand20-80 grade scaleArchetype: Pitch Mix

Player Stats

Recent regular season
PeriodTeamLevelWLERAGGSSVIPHRERHRBBSOWHIPK/9
Last 7 daysNo recent game logs available
Last 30 daysAll teamsAll levels100.0033016.0100005150.948.44
Year-by-year regular season
YearTeamLevelWLERAGGSSVIPHRERHRBBSOWHIPK/9
2026Akron RubberDucksAA443.981616072.1753632734671.518.34
2026Lake County CaptainsHigh-A324.401110045.0502822618631.5112.60
20262 teams · TotalAll levels764.1427260117.1125645413521301.519.97
2025Lake County CaptainsHigh-A124.5053120.021101019241.5010.80
2025Lynchburg HillcatsSingle-A463.332016083.2763531234881.319.47
20252 teams · TotalAll levels583.5625191103.29745413431121.359.72
2024Lynchburg HillcatsSingle-A024.913307.164413111.2313.50

Regular season only. Totals combine team and level stints. Recent windows overlap and use cached game logs. Stats refreshed: 2026-09-24T08:35:32.

Checklist appearances

  • 2024 Bowman Draft · First Bowman · First autograph
Explore the checklist tool

More Cleveland Guardians profiles

Organization reflects each player's saved assessment.