Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Sep 24, 2026 · 8:41 AM ET

Included in the latest imported public model. All figures reflect the saved assessment dates.

Player profile

Riley Nelson

CLE · High-A · 1B

Cleveland Guardians · Age at assessment: 22.8 · Bats: L · Throws: R

Performance Signal Only
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Assessment saved: · Stats updated:

Scouting comparison unavailable

Current performance can be evaluated, but a tool-to-results comparison requires verified scouting grades

Insufficient Evidence · 0%
PB Rank#2,210
Prospect Score47
Median44
Performance42
Trend0.0%

Tool vs observed results

Percentile scale

No tool-to-results comparison is available in this saved assessment. The recorded model range is shown below.

Model Range0.0%
374451
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance 42

Model history

Median movement
First recorded 39 Latest recorded 44
51 41.5 32 2026-06-25 · Median 39 2026-06-26 · Median 39 2026-06-28 · Median 39 2026-06-29 · Median 39 2026-06-30 · Median 39 2026-07-01 · Median 39 2026-07-03 · Median 40 2026-07-05 · Median 40 2026-07-07 · Median 40 2026-07-09 · Median 40 2026-07-11 · Median 40 2026-07-12 · Median 40 2026-07-14 · Median 40 2026-07-16 · Median 40 2026-07-21 · Median 39 2026-07-22 · Median 39 2026-07-23 · Median 40 2026-07-24 · Median 39 2026-07-25 · Median 40 2026-07-26 · Median 40 2026-07-27 · Median 40 2026-07-28 · Median 40 2026-07-29 · Median 40 2026-07-30 · Median 40 2026-07-31 · Median 40 2026-08-01 · Median 40 2026-08-03 · Median 40 2026-08-05 · Median 41 2026-08-07 · Median 41 2026-08-08 · Median 41 2026-08-09 · Median 41 2026-08-10 · Median 41 2026-08-11 · Median 41 2026-08-13 · Median 41 2026-08-14 · Median 36 2026-08-16 · Median 40 2026-08-17 · Median 40 2026-08-18 · Median 40 2026-08-19 · Median 40 2026-08-20 · Median 47 2026-08-22 · Median 47 2026-08-23 · Median 46 2026-08-25 · Median 46 2026-08-27 · Median 46 2026-08-28 · Median 46 2026-09-01 · Median 44 2026-09-02 · Median 44 2026-09-03 · Median 43 2026-09-05 · Median 43 2026-09-06 · Median 43 2026-09-09 · Median 44 2026-09-14 · Median 44.3 2026-09-15 · Median 44 2026-09-16 · Median 44 2026-09-17 · Median 44 2026-09-18 · Median 44 2026-09-19 · Median 44 2026-09-21 · Median 44 2026-09-22 · Median 44 2026-09-24 · Median 44 2026-06-25 2026-09-24

2026-09-24 · Median 44

Saved median assessments. Gaps indicate unavailable or non-comparable observations.
View recorded values
DateMedian
2026-09-2444
2026-09-2244
2026-09-2144
2026-09-1944
2026-09-1844
2026-09-1744
2026-09-1644
2026-09-1544
2026-09-1444.3
2026-09-0944
2026-09-0643
2026-09-0543
2026-09-0343
2026-09-0244
2026-09-0144
2026-08-2846
2026-08-2746
2026-08-2546
2026-08-2346
2026-08-2247
2026-08-2047
2026-08-1940
2026-08-1840
2026-08-1740
2026-08-1640
2026-08-1436
2026-08-1341
2026-08-1141
2026-08-1041
2026-08-0941
2026-08-0841
2026-08-0741
2026-08-0541
2026-08-0340
2026-08-0140
2026-07-3140
2026-07-3040
2026-07-2940
2026-07-2840
2026-07-2740
2026-07-2640
2026-07-2540
2026-07-2439
2026-07-2340
2026-07-2239
2026-07-2139
2026-07-1640
2026-07-1440
2026-07-1240
2026-07-1140
2026-07-0940
2026-07-0740
2026-07-0540
2026-07-0340
2026-07-0139
2026-06-3039
2026-06-2939
2026-06-2839
2026-06-2639
2026-06-2539

2026 season

Current season · regular season
G60
PA252
AVG.190
OBP.364
SLG.246
OPS.610
HR1
SB4
BB%20.2%
K%21.4%

2 teams · Total · All levels · Updated

Scouting Scenario Range

Model Range0.0%
374451
LowMedianHigh
206099
Performance 42

Profile Context

RiskLow Risk · 15
MLB / Model Watch
Confidence59
TypePosition Player

Backtested Forecasts

Separate from scouting grades
2027 MiLB production41.2
Historical 80% error band23–60
MLB arrival in 3 years4%
Productive MLB role in 3 years0%

The next-season score assumes at least 100 PA. A productive MLB role means a regular playing-time season with above-average measured hitting or pitching production. This is not a WAR forecast.

Scouting Tools

Tool grades unavailable from verified public scouting reports.

Player Stats

Recent regular season
PeriodTeamLevelGPAABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
Last 7 daysNo recent game logs available
Last 30 daysAll teamsAll levels731282100023110.036.129.036.165
Year-by-year regular season
YearTeamLevelGPAABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2026Lake County CaptainsHigh-A15655377200512180.132.292.170.462
2026Hill City HowlersSingle-A4518714229304112239364.211.389.275.664
20262 teams · TotalAll levels6025219536376112751544.190.364.246.610
2025Lynchburg HillcatsSingle-A15655771860173121.316.381.474.855

Regular season only. Totals combine team and level stints. Recent windows overlap and use cached game logs. Stats refreshed: 2026-09-22T00:11:19.

Checklist appearances

  • 2026 Bowman · First Bowman · First autograph
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More Cleveland Guardians profiles

Organization reflects each player's saved assessment.