Prospect Baseline Prospect Baseline
Model Last Run Oct 12, 2026
Prospect Baseline Profile

Gary Gill Hill

NYM · AAA · P

Prospect Baseline Rank #222

Player Assessment

Current model read

Performance is doing more work than the scouting grade in Gary Gill Hill's current evaluation. The 62 Performance Grade sits 22 points above the 40 scouting foundation, a large enough gap to change the shape of the evaluation. The age-to-level relationship adds development value to the current performance.

Prospect Score & Development

56/100

Developing composite evaluation

Baseline

74/100

Central modeled outcome; separate from Prospect Score.

Confidence

95/100

High confidence

Evidence strength, separate from model risk.

Performance context

Model-derived assessment
62/100

Solid current production

K/9
Miss ability7.7 K/9Near expected range
BB/9
Command1.9 BB/9Above-average command
HR/9
Contact management1.2 HR/9Near expected range

Scouting Profile

20–80 scouting scale
Overall
40
Fastball
50
Slider
50
Changeup
45
Control
60

Grades updated 2026-09-29

Supporting Evidence and What to Watch

Current model assessment

Supporting Evidence

The current Baseline is 74; the model's plausible outcome window runs from 56 on the low end to 77 on the high end. The width matters: the upside is real, but the profile still has enough unresolved information to produce materially different outcomes. The supporting evidence is comparatively mature, so future movement should require a more meaningful change in performance or scouting information.

What to Watch

The development advantage is already being rewarded, so the next question is how well the skills travel upward. At AAA, age-to-level context is already helping the projection. Maintaining the same indicators against stronger competition would strengthen the Baseline more than simply repeating the current line in place.

Model factors and risk context
Model Risk Index0
Age to level74
Track record66
Data quality100

Risk, age-to-level, track record and data quality are separate model fields. A missing value is not zero.

Projected Outcome Range

Floor 56Baseline 74Ceiling 77

These are modeled outcome bands on the Prospect Baseline 0–100 scale, not guaranteed MLB outcomes.

Forecast

Statistical projections

No statistical forecast is published for this player. The current profile data does not include a documented rate forecast method, target population, or validation results.

Development Trajectory

Recorded Baseline assessments

Latest recorded Baseline: 74 on · Current Floor 56, Baseline 74, Ceiling 77

Recorded history Current Floor–Ceiling range

The chart connects recorded points only within the same model version and starts a new segment across gaps longer than 120 days. Routine point markers are suppressed; changes of 8 or more Baseline points are marked. The vertical whisker shows the current range and Baseline.

View recorded values
DateBaselineModel version
2026-10-1274pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-0974pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-0874pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-0775pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-0575pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-0475pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-10-0375pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-3075pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-2975pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-2575pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-2475pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-2274pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-2174pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-1974pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-1874pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-1774pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-1674pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-1574pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-1475pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-0975pbm_affbdd7c43a60c55
2026-09-0665pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-09-0565pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-09-0365pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-09-0266pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-09-0166pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-2866pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-2766pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-2565pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-08-2365pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-2265pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-2065pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-1965pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-08-1865pbm_6169a2220134229c
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2026-08-0564pbm_6169a2220134229c
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2026-08-0164pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-3165pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-3065pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-2965pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-2865pbm_6169a2220134229c
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2026-07-2165pbm_6169a2220134229c
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2026-07-1463pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-1263pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-1163pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-0962pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-0762pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-0562pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-0365pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-07-0165pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-3065pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-2965pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-2864pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-2664pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-2564pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-2464pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-2365pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-2265pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-2166pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-2066pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-1966pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-1866pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-1769pbm_6169a2220134229c
2026-06-1668pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-1568pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-1469pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-1369pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-1269pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-1172pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-1072pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-0972pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-0872pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-0772pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-0672pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-0572pbm_145fdb152195dbe4
2026-06-0472pbm_145fdb152195dbe4

Development Outlook

Upside and risk

↑ Upside

The current Ceiling of 77 is 3 points above the Baseline. This is an outcome range, not a timed forecast.

⚑ Risk Factors

Model Risk Index: 0/100. This is a model measure, not a statement of real-world risk. Model confidence is 95/100 and is measured separately. Data quality and developmental uncertainty are also distinct.

Projection updated October 12, 2026 · Methodology

Projected Outcome Range Guide

How the Prospect Baseline outcome scale maps to player outcome tiers. The separate scouting bars use the traditional 20–80 scale.

Fringe<40
Developing40–59
Solid60–69
Above average70–79
Impact80–89
Generational90–100

Floor, Baseline, and Ceiling describe the current range of modeled outcomes. They are not guaranteed results or dates.